So, Where Is The Corrective Upswing?

Can the precious metals move lower before a short-term correction, and after correcting, will they continue their medium-term downtrend?

Gold & silver reversed yesterday (Mar. 2) and the GDX rallied after bottoming right in my previous target area, but it’s still unclear if the bottom is in.

Let’s check what’s happening in the charts.

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Figure 1 – COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)

In short, gold reversed yesterday after touching the upper border or my target area. Can the temporary bottom be in? Yes. Is it likely to be in? Not necessarily. Most likely it’s not in yet, because gold still hasn’t moved to its strong support levels.

The size of the first part of the move sometimes tends to be identical or near-identical to the size of the final move. The size of the initial, August decline was almost just like the November decline. Now, copying the January 2021 decline to the current situation (blue, dashed lines), provides us with the target at about $1,675.

The above price area coincides with the previous 2020 lows, and it’s also slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2020 upswing. Gold would be likely to at least reach this retracement before forming the temporary bottom.

Consequently, it would not be surprising to see gold suffering another ~$50 decline before finding a short-term bottom. More importantly though, if the initial move lower coincides with an S&P 500 correction, it would be likely to push mining stocks and silver lower in a more visible way.

On the bullish front, the shape of yesterday’s candlestick does indeed look like an intraday reversal. And we saw the same kind of intraday reversal in silver.

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Figure 2 – COMEX Silver Futures

The fact that silver’s triangle-vertex-based reversal is approximately today / was approximately yesterday (it’s unclear) further validates the scenario, in which precious metals move higher in the short term.

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Disclaimer: All essays, research, and information found on the Website represent the analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong ...

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