Sizzling Weather Forecast Gives Natural Gas Prices A Big Boost

Don't call it a comeback? Okay, so prices remain at super-low levels as far as a historical basis is concerned, but we have seen quite the rally in the natural gas market since it was left for dead late last week following the big bearish EIA report. A large part of the rally is likely the result of weather forecasts shifting toward very strong heat during the first half of July, indicative of much higher natural gas demand. Note the coverage of widespread above-normal temperatures in our morning outlook.

natural gas commodity weather

Reducing this down to Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs), we see just how far above normal projected demand sits, and even well above the levels of the same time last year.

natural gas commodity weather

In fact, the forecast is at such a hot level currently that even assuming just normal from day 15 through the balance of July would give us the third hottest July on record, behind only 2011 and 2012.

natural gas commodity weather

This comes on the heels of a June that has been hotter than normal as well.

natural gas commodity weather

 

The result of the hotter move has been a nearly 20-cent rally in prompt month natural gas prices, getting us squarely back in the middle of the long-running prompt month trading range that was briefly broken to the downside last week.

natural gas commodity weather

Now, as we know, in summer, weather does not rule the natural gas market as it often does in winter, and there are still bearish factors that need to be overcome, as evidenced by last week's EIA report and the fact that demand cannot climb back to pre-COVID levels, but, for now, we have, at the least, stopped the bleeding.

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