Silver: Development Of The Third Leg Up

On June 24, 2019, in the article "Silver continues its bullish rally", I wrote: "Having found a solid base, the money will be able to develop the third leg of its bullish rally."

This third leg up should bring a virtually continuous rise to about $19.5 in October. After a quick consolidation to $17, silver will resume its rise to its first goal, which is $21.

The $21 level should be reached either in December or in the first weeks of 2020.

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The courses of prices had always followed the principles discovered by Fibonacci long ago. For silver, it's obvious.

This rise started at $13... it will go to $21... then (13 + 21 =) to $34... then (21 + 34 =) $55... etc.

The $21 level should be reached around January 2020 and the $ 34 level around October 2020... Afterward, it seems to me, that there should be a sharp acceleration of the space-time.

But we're not yet there.

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In April 2019, Société Générale has thrown the towel, abandoning its role of "market-maker" in the London's synthetic gold and silver market. In this market, traditionally twelve bullion banks hold the market. But we are witnessing a real exodus: 80% of the banks from the London Gold Fixing have abandoned the LBMA ghost ship.

Since 2014, some of the biggest names of the market maker's cartel had been leaving London's precious metals market: Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui & Co and Credit Suisse dropped out of LBMA. In hindsight, the numerous additions to the list from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2016 seem to have been substitute replacements while keeping the number of banks constant.

Barclays had been fined for gold fix manipulationDeutsche Bank is under investigation by several supervisors for the same reasons, Mitsui was under investigation by the Swiss authorities for its precious metals business and Credit Suisse was under investigation by the US DOJ. While that may all have been a coincidence, the schedule of fines and regulatory investigations cannot have been immaterial in the decisions of those banks to withdraw from their precious metals trading activities.

Could this defections of SG be the beginning of a new wave of departures, and the first sign of a scandal on the London markets for synthetic precious metals?

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