Seeking Gold 2401 (+26%) In 2021


Through all its thrashing machinations, Gold just completed the second decade of the 21st Century with a ten-year net gain of +34% from 1422 on 31 December 2010 to 1902 on December 31, 2020. We now look for Gold in the first year of the Third Decade to reach 2401 for a gain of +26%.

By comparison (for those of you fortunate enough to be scoring at home during this calendar milestone weekend), the U.S. Money Supply (per "M2") finished the decade +119%. And the earnings-less stock market index which honestly is horribly due for a massive crash (i.e. the S&P 500) recorded a decade's gain of +199%. Such overly-hedged inflation "mitigant" further compares to 10-year increases in the stateside Producer Price Index of just +15% and +17% for the Consumer Price Index. The result is our "live" price/earnings ratio of the S&P closing out the decade at 70.5x ... and if you don't believe that, do the math yourself. Here (yet again) is the formula using earnings actually booked:

Welcome to the Third Decade of the 21st Century.

Remember watching "The Jetsons" back in the '60s? Remember Stan Kubrick's "2001"? Last May marked the 53rd anniversary of the release of "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band", since which the price of Gold all told is at present up 53 times. And to quote The Grateful Dead from 1970: "What a long, strange trip it's been":

Now let's expand upon our seeing the price of Gold in 2021 reaching 2401, i.e. +26%. Across the 50-year span since Nixon's nixing of the Gold Standard at $35/oz. back in 1971, the yellow metal has recorded 19 down years and 31 up years, including 14 years of gains bettering +20%. And with the currency debasement pedal stomped all the way to the metal, Gold ought be in top gear.

Obviously markets always revert to "their mean", but what do we really mean by "mean"? Per technical analysis, whether one is scrutinizing Gold, or the S&P, or any market, the number of "means" is infinite, given so are the number of studies. Select that which makes the analyst look good, and there it is.

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