Russia Moves On Ukraine. The Corn & Ethanol Report
We started off the day with GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4, Chicago Fed Activity Index (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims (19/Feb), GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q4, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q4, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (19/Feb), PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4, Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q4, Continuing Jobless Claims (12/Feb), Core PCE prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4 and GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est Q4 at 7:30 A.M., New Home Sales (Jan), and New Home Sales MoM (Jan) at 9:00 A.M.,EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M. EIA Energy Stocks, Kansas Fed Composite Index (Feb) and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) at 10:00 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 10:10 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Mester Speech at 11:00 A.M., 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M.
On the Corn front, the war has corn locked limit up. The market basis march was 9 cents higher in yesterday’s action. It seemed corn was following soymeal and wheat and the Ukraine was the breadbasket of the USSR back in the 9180s and 90s. Katy bar the door. This makes a sure Fed Rate Hike in March in doubt. This act of war could make for an interesting USDA/WASDE number march 9th, as Black Sea exports will be no doubt disrupted.
On the Ethanol front, six seed companies that are helping clean-up of multiple hazardous materials at the AltEn site in Mead Nebraska and are suing AltEn, Mead Cattle Company, Platte River Green Fuels and Tanner Shaw, President of AltEn. The lawsuit said, “Shaw is the individual at the center of a complex web of companies related to AltEn and ethanol plant. .” There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil front, US energy policy has only capitulated the Putin war machine as Russia gets richer on our buck while selling coal and gas to China under the table. Last night’s API came out with builds in crude +5.983M, Cushing had draws of -2.066M and draws in distillates – 0.085 M and had slight builds in gasoline + 0.427M. Whispers of some SPR released was alleged to be in the report but unconfirmed. The Strategic petroleum Reserve (SPR) has tanks that supply 584.8 million barrels and should not be used for tight supplies in an open market. In the overnight electronic session the April crude oil is currently trading at 9901 which is 691 points higher. The trading range has been 10054 to 9250.
On the Natural Gas front, were flying as well with the geo-political mess the world is in. The March natural gas expires today and the EIA Gas Storage is on for the morning. A survey conducted by the WSJ pegged withdrawals at 140 bcf. Estimates range from 114 bcf to 199 bcf. This compares to the one-year withdrawal of 324 bcf and the five-year average draw 166 bcf. With Russian firepower and hardware they plan an occupation thumbing their nose to the free world. Abd China is watching with interest to see what reaction the world would have as they have their sights set on Taiwan. In the overnight electronic session the April natural gas is currently trading at 4.835 which is 0.244 higher. The trading range has been 4.938 to 4.588. This ship has sailed and we will be trading rough waters as global risk and volatility just went through the roof.
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