Our Hope From Santa Was In Vain; Gold 1900 Still To Gain


Per last week's piece, "Gold's 1900+ Track Looks to Be in Santa's Sack", old Saint Nick doesn't seem to have come through with that pack.

And yet, Gold per se has had a darn good year. In settling out the week earlier Thursday at 1883, with but four trading days left in 2020, price year-to-date is +23.9%; further, Silver at 25.95 is +44.9%. So please no complaining; rather instead be rejoicing. 

We've gathered most of our salient end-of-week analytics so let's get to it, beginning with Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date. Santa may not have brought us Gold 1900+, but for the past two weeks price has teased that level, reaching on Monday up to 1912, the highest level since November 9. And as was the case a week ago, Gold is well within range -- now just 29 points -- of eclipsing that same 1912 level which then flips the parabolic trend back to Long: Gold's expected weekly trading range is 74 points. So clearly a little old-fashioned end-of-year buying can get it done, the rightmost bar nudging its red dot:

"But, they'll sell Brexit agreement getting done" or "they'll sell COVID relief getting done" (and then some?).

Perhaps. Yet why sell Gold at 1883 when by the opening Scoreboard's debasement value is pegged at 3664? Or why sell Gold when the "live" price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 -- with Tesla now a constituent -- is 67.2x? It's not a typo; rather it's beyond stupid. (Note, too, the mighty Index's yield is but 1.514% while that on the Bond is 1.662%; surely your money manager has brought this to your attention?)

Nonetheless, hardly are Gold and the S&P in negative correlation with one another; rather per this view of their respective percentage tracks from a month ago-to-date (21 trading days), it's more of an encore performance of their classic pas de deux:

So as the S&P 500 climbs merrily along without any substantive earnings support, neither is the economy providing same, the Economic Barometer being bruised for the third consecutive week. Lowlights included a significant slump in the Conference Board's reading of Consumer Confidence for December, November's Personal Income shrinking for the second consecutive month, and Personal Spending deflating as well. Also, the month's New Home Sales slowed. Thus for the Baro, all is not well, (and for the S&P, pray don't tell):

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