Our Gold Forecast For 2019

If Only it was 2019 in this missive's title as the forecast price rather than the year.

Yet per the above Gold Scoreboard, a price of 2019 -- and well beyond given our currency debasement price alone of 2854 -- must be inevitably in the cards once Gold plays catch up to the green money supply line at upper right. But again, we don't expect 2019 in 2019. Of course, iconic Monty Python is on record as having said "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!" ... thus one never knows?

Therefore Our Forecast:

A week ago we hinted at what it would be. So again in looking at the above Scoreboard and its price tracks for the past three years, what is the overall conclusion? That the price of Gold hasn't really materially moved anywhere in any of them. That in turn means Gold's overhead price structure hasn't been altered because price hasn't reached up that far, (for example above Base Camp 1377). Price is what it is. Therefore, it isn't hard (let alone rocket science) to project price for this coming year. So given that nothing overhead has been reached such as to be altered:

  • Our conservative upside price target for 2019 will remain at 1434, and
  • Were a material upside breakout then follow, our aggressive upside price target will again be 1526.

Fairly simple stuff.

And with but one trading day left in 2019, Gold has marginally departed above the top of The Box (1240-1280), settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1283 as we next see in the weekly bars. Our call has been that come year-end on Monday, price shall be nestled within the "safety and serenity" of the The Box. But should the wheels again come flying off the stock market in finishing off 2019, toward furthering the "fear trade bid" we ought instead see Gold finish atop The Box. Moreover (as we'll herein note), Gold tends to do well on the year's last trading day. Meanwhile, here are the weekly bars:

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