Sometime tweets go your way and sometimes they don’t. OPEC snaps back at Presidents Donald Trump’s tweet that OPEC should take it easy on the oil market, saying that they already are taking it easy. This comes as Russia says they are kicking into high gear complying with their share of the agreed-upon production cuts. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia has cut output by 140k-150k barrels a day and is fully complying with OPEC+ deal.

Add to that a very bullish American Petroleum Institute supply report that showed a 4.2 million barrel drop in crude supply versus expectations of a 3.589-million-barrel build, gasoline draws of 3.8 million barrel drop, almost twice what they were looking for, but a 40,000-barrel increase in distillates and a 2-million-barrel increase in the Cushing hub.

Also lending support, Increased tensions between India and Pakistan and reports that hardly anyone is buying Venezuela’s heavy oil and you have set the stage for an oil price recovery. We still have the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report to get through and if it shows the same data that API showed it could set the stage for a big-time oil rally.

Let us start with OPEC. President Trump caused the biggest oil sell-off of the year 2 days ago, tweeting that “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. The World cannot take a price hike - fragile!” OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih,  responded, "We are taking it easy." "The twenty-five countries are taking a very slow and measured approach. Just as the second half of last year proved, we are interested in market stability first and foremost." Besides that, he alluded to an oversupply that was probably caused in part by Trump pressuring the cartel to raise output last year to replace barrels of Iranian oil that Trump sanctioned but then granted waivers and said that removing 1.2 million barrels from the market each day, was appropriate. Or in other words, if you think we are going to raise output because of your tweet, you better tweet yourself.

In fact, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has credited the OPEC deal to bring back stability to the crude market by saying "The market today looks relatively calm and stable, marked by decreasing volatility and more or less acceptable prices for both exporters and importers. We attribute this stability primarily to the deal," he said in an interview with Gazeta.

Shale oil producers also hope that prices stay high because they are struggling, especially after last year’s oil price crash.  Reuters reports that “More leadership changes loom in U.S. shale industry.” More leadership shake-ups and fights with activist investors could be on the way for the domestic shale sector, analysts said after the sudden retirement of Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Tim Dove and recent executive resignations at Halcon Resources. KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Leo Mariani expects battles with activist investors to continue this year as shareholders grow increasingly discontent with shale companies' performance.

Oasis Petroleum’s outlook shows you that shale operators must pull back this year. ”Oasis constructed its 2019 plan based on being free cash flow positive at $50 WTI. In order to achieve this objective, the total E&P and other CapEx plans have been reduced by approximately 40% year over year and is expected to range between $540 million and $560 million. Oasis is directing approximately 75% of its capital to the Williston Basin and approximately 25% to the Delaware Basin. The Company expects 85% of its E&P and other CapEx to be invested in drilling and completion activities, including: Completing approximately 70 gross operated wells with a working interest of approximately 65% in the Williston Basin; Completing 9 to 11 gross operated wells with a working interest of approximately 90% in the Delaware Basin; and Cash flow from the Williston asset is expected to fund a small Delaware outspend in 2019. Oasis produced 88.3 MBoepd in the fourth quarter of 2018 and expects first-quarter production to be essentially flat quarter over quarter.” They are just one of many that will cut back.

Venezuela oil sanctions are already draining U.S. oil supply. That is going to be more of an issue moving forward. The World is running short on heavy crude. Bloomberg News reports that tankers holding 8.36 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, worth upwards of a half-billion dollars, are floating off the country’s coast as the nation struggles to find buyers for its oil following new U.S. sanctions in January. An armada of 16 ships holds cargoes belonging to state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Chevron Corp., Valero Energy Corp., and Rosneft Oil Co PJSC, according to shipping reports and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil ventures owned by PDVSA with Rosneft, Chevron, Total SA and Equinor ASA, whose upgraders convert tar-like Venezuelan crude into oil that refineries can process, reduced rates this week because they ran out of space to store crude, according to people with knowledge of the situation. With few buyers willing to take PDVSA’s oil, the alternative was to put some of that oil onto tankers to clear space and continue to operate at lower rates.