Oil Prices Continue To Be Supported By Voluntary Cuts By OPEC Countries

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At Friday's close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.15% (for the week -0.50%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index decreased by 0.04% (for the week +1.69%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.12% (for the week +3.54%). Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Cleveland Mester bolstered the US dollar and pressured stocks when she said she wanted to see a few more months of good inflation data before cutting interest rates.

The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for June unexpectedly fell by 2.5 to a 7-month low of 65.6, weaker than expectations for a rise to 72.0. The University of Michigan's US 1-year inflation expectations indicator for June was unchanged from May at 3.3%, which was weaker than expectations of a decline to 3.2%. The 5-10 year inflation expectations indicator rose to a 7-month high of 3.1% in June, above expectations of no change at 3.0%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.44% (for the week -2.96%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.66% (for the week -3.96%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.67% (for the week -3.37%), and the UK FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.21% (for the week -1.19%) on Friday. European markets are increasingly anxious about European politics after French President Macron announced snap legislative elections following his party's defeat in last Sunday's European Parliament elections.

Centeno, a spokesman for the ECB's governing council, said the ECB should be cautious in bringing interest rates to levels that neither stimulate nor restrain the economy, suggesting the ECB would not be in a hurry before cutting rates again. His colleague, ECB Governing Council spokesman Vasle, said there is a good chance that cutting interest rates will be much slower than the process of raising rates. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut by 16% for the 18 July meeting and 63% for the 12 September meeting.

Oil prices rose nearly 4% last week due to improved global demand forecasts, and OPEC's current production policy continues to support the market. Despite the announcement that it may begin phasing out voluntary cuts in October, the group continues to stress that it will force non-compliant members to cut production in the coming months.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.32% for the week, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed around its opening level for the week, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.34% for the week and Australia's ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.25%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HK50) hit a six-week low on Monday. Hong Kong stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks as the prospect of lower US interest rates and further Western economic sanctions on Chinese companies have undermined investor confidence.

The offshore yuan stabilized at 7.26 per dollar as traders processed a variety of economic indicators from China. The country's retail sales rose to a three-month high of 3.7% year-on-year in May, accelerating from a fifteen-month low of 2.3% in the previous month and exceeding the forecast growth of 3%, signaling a rebound in consumer spending. However, the broader economic picture remained mixed, with industrial production and fixed asset investment coming in below market forecasts in May and the urban unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5%. On the monetary policy front, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided to leave the medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2.5% for 10 consecutive months, which was widely expected.

  • S&P 500 (US500) 5,431.60 −2.14 (−0.04%)
  • Dow Jones (US30) 38,589.16 −57.94 (−0.15%)
  • DAX (DE40) 18,002.02 −263.66 (−1.44%)
  • FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,146.86 −16.81 (−0.21%)
  • USD Index 105.51 −0.04 (−0.04%)
     

Important events today:

  • China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US FOMC Harker Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

More By This Author:

US Stock Indices Are Renewing Their Highs. The Bank Of Japan Kept Interest Rates Unchanged
The Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs - Friday, June 14
Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs - Thursday, June 13

Disclosure: This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, ...

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