Oil Cycle Leads The Stock Cycle

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you. oil-cycle-leads-the-stock-cycle

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.
Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.

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There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it will be trillions. Yeah, get that passed the community who wants roads or hospitals versus bailing out investment banks for the second time in a few decades. 

The 2020 virus may not be the Spanish flue (lets hope so), however, its effects on highlighting how weak the world supply chain is as well as the increased risk of a human deadly virus is more prevalent and more so how poorly the health services react to a crisis. This means there will be a 'structural change' on how things go forward. Supply chains will become more local, less centralized, consumer physical goods may require virus protection manufacturing process. This will all cost more, therefore higher prices and maybe even an inflation shock is in the future.

Inflation is the one thing which can rock the 'bubble' world. Why? Who can control the long end of the bond market, well no one. Remember when the US 10 year hit 3.2% (Nov 2018) and the world could not handle it, forcing the Fed to stop QT and start QE (via repo market).      

A famous quote, highlighting the power of the bond market:

In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: ...“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”...

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