E Next Wek's Fed Colors 2019 Gold Outlook

Gold reversed sharply on Friday after reaching $1,362.20, a top is possible. I exited USLV with a small profit and reentered DUST. The price action surrounding next weeks Fed announcement will help determine our outlook for the remainder of 2019.

It’s too soon to know if gold topped, but if it did, then I’ll expect a decline back towards the $1200 level by November or December. Much of this is contingent upon the Fed and the potential for a recession.

I’m perplexed regarding silver and platinum. Each is barely off their May lows. In theory, if gold topped on Friday, then that would imply silver and platinum are peaking as well. If we are in a recession, then industrial demand for silver and platinum would likely soften. In that event, I can make a case for new multi-year lows in these metals.


Prices entered the danger zone last week and reversed sharply on Friday, a top as possible. A weekly close below $1323.60 would establish a weekly swing high. For a bullish breakout, gold requires a weekly close above $1365. If the top is confirmed, I will anticipate a decline that tests $1200 in Q4.


 Prices entered the danger zone and sold off sharply after touching $1362.20. It looks like the bears are still in control. Gold would have to close progressively above $1362 on a daily basis to support a breakout.


The dichotomy between gold and silver is bewildering. Silver is still oversold, and we’ve only had one close above the 10-week EMA. I’m not sure what that means just yet, but it could imply a breakdown below $14.00 if gold topped.


Prices reverse sharply with gold on Friday after testing $15.12. Progressive closes below $14.60 would establish a top. To restore the bullish tone, silver would have to close above $15.15.


Prices have been consolidating after testing $788 in May. A decisive close below $800 would suggest a breakdown. Note, it’s hard for me to get bearish on silver and platinum while prices are already oversold.

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