Negative Gold Camber For The Balance Of September

Per the wording in this week's title, to fundamentally find anything "negative" for Gold these days is a fool's game. Certainly so since price unwound from having gotten ahead of itself nine years ago.

One only need consider the ever-burgeoning state of the 3Ds: Debasement, Debt and Derivatives. And notably so stateside: the Current Account Deficit for Q2 having just been reported as the deepest since 2006's Q3; the Federal Reserve (not surprisingly) having just stated it will increase by at least its current pace the purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities; the money supply (M2 measure) itself having increased just year-to-date alone by a whopping 22.3% (as clearly bespoke by the vertical green spoke in the above graphic's right-hand panel); and the horrid cost of having to pay $1.19 for one euro, an increase of 11.2% over $1.07 just as recently as late April. "Sacré bleu!" even as the EuroZone ramps up its own monetary-accommodative mode.

Through it all, Gold year-to-date in spite of price having gone to sleep of late is rightly +28.8% and indeed as much as +37.4% per the August 7 All-Time High of 2089.  Of course more broadly, Gold ought be +77% higher still per the above Scoreboard's 3565 valuation than the actual 1957 at which price settled Friday.

However to technically assess Gold's present state, in the title is the word "camber", invoking the notion of lines and bends and convexity, such as (placed base-to-base) the parting of a pair of skis between their kissing at tip and tail. And there is a technical tale that we now avail toward Gold's gliding with a negative bend into September's end.

Of course were technicals to always will out, we'd all be rich, (or more realistically there'd be no market with everyone on the same side of the trade). Either way, here we've two charts displaying technical studies highly visible to the trading community at large, comprised and reacted to by both humans and algorithms alike. The first is our more familiar graphic of Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date. And thereon we see a fourth-recorded red dot of parabolic Short trend, the price bars themselves now struggling to stay above the rising diagonal trend line, (itself a wonderful sight to behold, albeit as history has told, price over time works both sides of that fold):

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