Near-Term Gold Forecast: The Thrill Of Victory And The Agony Of Indecision

Man-oh-man, the heat I am taking over my recent "Caution" stance on the near-term outlook for gold and silver is now verging on the theatre of the absurd.

Kaminak chart

Email, tweets, voicemail messages and every other form of indirect confrontation have been used to convince me that my reluctance to join the masses in piling into the gold trade after an 82% advance off the lows in the past six weeks in the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and a 20% advance in bullion prices year-to-date is somehow FAULTY. . .notwithstanding the fact that in my Dec. 8, 2015, email entitled "Keep the lead in the pencil…" I wrote:

"These first two days of the week are not fazing me in the slightest as I fully expect that the gold market is being primed for a major advance at or around the Fed announcement on December 16. You can't have the Commercial Cretins down to a paltry 2,911-contract short position versus all-time record shorts in the Large Specs and be timid in your positioning. Due to the time of year, it will be more volatile than normal but I just keep adding to my Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) positions and await the eventual pain that is going to be inflicted on anyone short this market. I eagerly await the screams of protest as the market gets lifted above $1,100 next week and all those buy-stops get triggered. As for the miners, they are trading so egregiously discounted to historical norms that, according to a quant that I know, if they revert to the historical mean and gold did nothing, you would get a 40% advance in the HUI just for starters.

So with gold at around $1,078 at the time I wrote that, I was long the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) unleveraged ETFs, I owned a small position in the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (JNUG) and a small position in the NUGT January $25 calls, and I owned sizeable positions in Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM:TSX.V) (then $.78), Tinka Resources Ltd. (TK:TSX.V; TLD:FSE; TKRFF:OTCPK) (then $11) and Stakeholder Gold Corp. (SRC:TSX.V) (then $0.10). Needless to say, the reason I was so table-pounding, eye-bulging, drool-inducing bullish is well documented and quite familiar to anyone who actually takes my opinions seriously, so when I watch bear after bear after bear throw up the white flag and come crashing over the wall and down into our bullish camp buying anything and everything gold friendly, but then actually try to LECTURE me as to why I should NOT be cautious, I have to stand back and rub my eyes. CNBC's Fast Money Traders are bulls; Jim Cramer is now touting gold as if he actually "called it" back on December 4 and the blogosphere is abuzz with an army of newly found gold "experts" selling subscriptions and providing "advice" (although they claim it isn't). The turnaround in sentiment has been the most rapid turn I've encountered since the mid-1970s, but with the advent of the Internet and social media and instantaneous communication, what took months back in 1976 has taken literally days here in 2016 and that, my friends, has taken me somewhat aback.

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