E Natural Gas Prices And Seasonality Based On April Weather Trends

The negative phase of the NAO index shown above helped to predict what I coined years ago (The Arctic Pig) and produce one rally in natural gas last winter. That was of course in February. Otherwise, this index has been mostly positive.


It is my job to isolate which of these years are most important in developing long-range weather forecasts and trading strategies for clients in multiple commodities. I do believe, based on my research that natural gas prices will bottom by summer, but any major rally above $3.00 will only occur during the "hottest" of these analog years shown below. Too many pundits have been talking about a major long-term bull market in natural gas for years based on LNG exports, etc., but the reality is, there is more than enough supply to meet demand and the weather is always the most important driving force in this market.

June-August global temperature projections (predicted last January from a mostly +NAO/AO winter)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Jim Roemer's climatepredict.com program above and how the mostly positive NAO winter suggests a hot summer for parts of the Midwest and Plains (above)

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