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Trump wants the House and Senate to remain with the Republicans for his full 4 years.

To do this, Trump must get the American dream back on track during 2026. On the back of a lower oil price, tame inflation, with consumer demand shooting higher. This means he wants the US dollar down, interest rates down, oil down. The big three all at once, wow!

However, during the second half of 2025 a massive period of US debt refinancing is in his way ($13T or more), to overcome this, Trump needs a lower US Treasury 10 year interest rate, this is why oil and inflation must be tame, and maybe the economy a little soft or recession lite.

No wonder Trump wants the Russian war over, because Russian oil back on the market will help with his goals. 

Also, Trump is forcing more fiscal military spending and more debt onto European nations. This means European interest rates will rise. This will move the EURO higher and the USD lower as interest rates adjust as the world realises Europe's free military ride is over.  

China is in a slump. They want the world to have lower financing costs, so the world can buy more Chinese goods. To do this the US dollar must be lower. Xi and Trump will be doing a nice deal in May 2025. 

Of course a lower US dollar, with lower world financing costs is great for Technology and Crypto holdings. 

A good summary by Louis-Vincent Gave (Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer of Gavekel).

Gold and silver miners need two things: Higher metal prices (on a lower US dollar) and cheaper energy costs. This will ensure profit margins are healthy. Which means higher prices for XAU, GOLD and SILVER.

Of course prices will not move in a straight line, many wobbles before prices reach there peak.

Chart 1 - XAU 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Chart 2 - Silver

(Click on image to enlarge)

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