Market Briefing For Wednesday, Dec. 23

'Stark relief' - characterized this interesting session. First the market's failure to favorably respond to the much-delayed (and uninspiring) 'Relief Package', basically suggests it was discounted and totally factored-in as a must-occur.

Secondly, President-elect Biden's stark 'the worst of times are still ahead' comments, are absolutely true 'for cases' (mortality rates are lower due to a bit better care, but it's very difficult when the numbers zoom so much higher).

That reflects how bleak things have gotten, as some hospital Administrators in California (for instance) note they will be like New York City at the heart back in March when they were overwhelmed with cases.

So sure, with Christmas in the wings, and heavy caseloads expected 'after' the holidays too (because so many are traveling or somehow rationalizing their more outgoing behavior), it is not unusual that President-elect Biden is saying the worst is ahead. I've pointed out for some time the ying-and-yang of the hopium from vaccines versus the reality of expanding cases, for now.

Executive summary:

  • S&P  (SPX) was defensive but not devastating as interesting dichotomy occurs in ways that impact individual stocks as the broad market remains jittery.
  • The behavior of the VIX (VIX) especially yesterday reflects trader 'edginess'.
  • Oil was down a bit following Brent (BNO) and a Crude Build here, generally at the price zone we targeted and didn't expect higher oil (OIL) for now anyway,
  • One big story is an indirect 'off-shoot' of LiDar, as we have been strongly enthused about, and tried to convey both the technical and fundamental untapped value in, and that's LightPath Technologies (LPTH).
  • Since last week's million share technical breakout day, I suggested that ensuing LPTH light-volume was a healthy consolidation with a breakout coming into the 4's (or higher. especially over time, in stair-step fashion),
  • Today was LightPath's 'first' 2 million share day, and it was incredibly up a rousing 40%, to place it among the most-up NASDAQ stocks, and I noted during the day that there never was much profit-taking, interesting.
  • What's changed is 'institutional and perhaps retail' awareness of Lidar with respect to autonomous driving etc., and a few people connecting dots between LightPath and others.
  • 'Other's we've already mentioned include 'possibly' Luminar, Velodyne Lidar or even (as mentioned) Innovitz (which remember is Israeli so there's possible symbiosis between the LPTH CEO and that company, and yet another perhaps in a far-different part of the world (another time), and now to that one has to add, Apple (AAPL).
  • The embrace of LiDar (as contrasted to Tesla's computer/camera style, is a very big deal, whereas LightPath is also honing-in on AI and AR, which is what Tesla (TSLA) counts on alone, but if Tesla were to recant slightly there is possibly a way to incorporate infrared sensors into their approach too.
  • Much chatter at Apple's plans today, regarding working on an EV vehicle or with autonomous driving, which tends to involve LiDar and infrared.
  • It's not new to you, we'd discussed secretive 'Project Titan' occasionally, but now the topic has expanded a bit beyond competition for Tesla, and it is a hot area that has captured market interest rapidly (as expected and I am glad we have covered this from the days of 'congenial' relationships between LightPath and Luminar, as long-time members will recall.
  • Last night I mentioned Apple furloughed most of their 'Project Titan' but might have reinvigorated given advent of better battery technology and it is worth mentioning, those improved 'lidar' / infrared lens systems.
  • I also noted that IF Apple goes in the direction of a 'platform' or factory for a large product of this nature, think of Mt. Pleasant Wisconsin, where a factory is being built by Foxconn..presumably for flat-panels, so they said it wasn't for panels, then for what, an Apple car (?).
  • Overall, dots are finally getting connected speculatively, LightPath has a ridiculous market-cap of only about 100 million, and some might contend it would not be pricey in this new environment at several times that, and it could also be argued that LightPath is attractive in several ways.
  • Allow for some pause but recognize that 'usually' when a stock drops lots after a run-up and then bails-out all the higher price buyers as LPTH just did, with nary a pause, that's serious buying looking for higher levels.
  • I'm thinking that was underway a week ago', so 'they' let it settle back to absorb all who would sell shares to them, and then up and away, how far or when it rests, I have no idea (well I do technically, but that's all).
  • If this is caught-up seriously by 'lidar dot connectors', it could even double again (why not, no option writing crowd, little awareness, everyone wakes up to find they've overlooked a gem that could benefit no matter which lidar firm prevails in the automotive sector.
  • Meanwhile the COVID-19 viral crisis persists and the President 'now' says Americans aren't getting enough help, well maybe he could have pushed before Congress voted, rather than had it merely focus on perhaps a veto and then fighting(?), however it may be part of a grander political plan.
  • We have inferred vaccines are being overly-portrayed as a solution, while the reality is more is needed, including better mass testing and therapies.
  • 'Most likely' the vaccine (like 'code') will have to be 'tweaked' to address any changes in the virus genomic sequencing (or the protein spike), now we have BionTech (BNTX)(Pfizer partner) confident the existing vaccine is ok.
  • I have just seen a report suggesting Moderna's (MRNA) vaccine drops protection at a fast pace especially in anyone over 50 years of age, these are merely the first vaccines, will need updating, and cannot be the only weapons.
  • More discussion out there about 'monoclonal antibodies' and the need for low dose mass availability, and Sorrento (SRNE) shows up only occasionally.
  • This may not be a bad thing, you know the military is involved (DARPA as funding through Phase 2 tests for STI-2020 at least), and whether political or other reasons, the general public isn't hearing about the products).
  • Tonight Sorrento finally submitted an EUA request to the FDA regarding Covi-Stix, it's a nasal swab test which will show positive in 2 minutes and 15 minutes to be fully confirmed as a negative.
  • This is an antigen test and their PCR test is still pending at FDA, while we have not yet had submission for the saliva test.
  • The key tests are the 'drugs', although the test market alone will be huge for years to come, and hopefully Sorrento's inertia means they had time to get 'things right' before submitting to the FDA, expect more from them.
  • In evening trading Sorrento jumped up half a buck, and typically it goes up on news then settles-back, but beware of possibly additional news of a favorable nature behind this, if so shares could surprise and hold gains.
  • Tonight CDC says there is no evidence the British COVID variant is more severe or deadlier, but they don't deny that it spreads faster.
  • Stock market is edgy about all this, fairly thin, hence volatile either way.

In-sum: the focus is dubious ability to hold sentiment, while recognizing the strength building again in Lidar, and stocks related to the sector, including the parts suppliers that might be common to more than one player (like LPTH).

(Shares closed at 4.80 -52-week high- about the same on the Pacific later. As LPTH goes over 5, more institutions allow their traders to consider positions.)

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