Market Assessment Of Prospects For Resolution Of The US-China Trade Dispute By September 2020

Going from August 22nd to 23rd, front month futures dropped 12-6; the August 2020 futures price (which are an unbiased predictor of one year ahead spot prices) was down 8-4. Hence, farmers should prepare for a long, tough, period of self-inflicted (by the administration) damage.

Source: Barchart.com, accessed 8/24/2019.

Given no real market moving agricultural news — aside from Mr. Trump's tweets tit-for-tat response to the Chinese tariff retaliation — we can ascribe about 2/3 of the current drop to long term impact on US soybean prices.

In other words, the market sees little prospect for a swift and positive resolution to the current US-China trade dispute.

The blip continues!

Disclosure: None.

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