E Looking AT 2019 With A Top-Down Approach

US DOLLAR MONTHLY

What happens to gold and stocks in 2019 will be heavily dependent upon the dollar. I can make a case for a major top at 103 in 2017, but a bear market won’t be confirmed till prices drop below 88.15. Until that happens, prices are technically still in an uptrend.

US DOLLAR

The daily chart formed a swing low on Friday, and we may have a cycle bottom. The next rally is essential. If prices fail to make new highs, the uptrend will be in trouble. If prices didn’t bottom last Thursday, we could see one more low to tag the 200-day MA.

CRB WEEKLY

The CRB tagged the underside of the cycle trend line and the 10-day EMA. I still think we will see the December low tested or broken in Q1 of this year. However, a weekly close above the 20-week MA would apply a bottom at 168.21.

WTIC

The daily chart of crude met resistance at the 50-week EMA as well as the prior consolidation. If prices are going to drop below $42.00 in February or March, as I suspect, I’d like to see oil remain below $56.00.

GOLD

Prices have been consolidating since reaching $1300. A quick thrust to $1310 remains in the cards as long as prices flutter above the 10-day EMA. To support an immediate breakout, I would need to see a large volume move through $1315 to $1320. Any correction would need to maintain the $1240-$1260 support area.

SILVER 

Prices are still consolidating, and we could see another push higher which may be the final thrust into a peak. If prices break down from here, initial support arrives at $15.20 with ultimate support between $14.80 – $14.90.

GDX

Last year, miners whipsawed their way into a January peak. We may see something similar this year, that’s what I will be looking for potentially next week. Quickly filled up-gaps will support a top.

GDXJ

Juniors look like they may have one more spike higher. Progressive closes below $30.00 would support a breakdown.

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