LBMA’s Forecasters Are Modestly Bullish On Gold. And You?

The LBMA published its annual forecast survey for precious metals prices in 2019. Gold prices range from $1,150 to $1,475. Who is right?

Gold Prices Will Modestly Increase

As one year ago, the views of 30 precious market analysts in this year’s forecasts are strongly divergent. The average price of gold is projected to be $1,311.71, so it is expected to be around the current level (when we write this Gold News Monitor, the price of gold amounts to $1,320.70). It implies a modest increase of 1.8 percent compared to the average price in the first half of January 2019 (when the forecasts have been done), and higher jump of 3.4 percent from the average price in 2018. However, the projected trading range for gold is between $1,150 and $1,475, or $325. So, prepare yourself for a really interesting year for the gold market!

There are wide spreads across other precious metals as well. In particular, the average price of palladium is forecasted to be $1,267.68. It implies a fall of 1.5 percent, but the figure is overshadowed by a $815 trading range (from $900 to 1,715). The spread suggests that 2019 might be turbulent for palladium. The analysts are more bullish on silver, forecasting a 4.2 percent increase in its average price to $16.28. However, it is platinum which is expected to be the best performing four metals. The experts project its average price to increase 5.1 percent to $850.71.

Bullish Case for Gold

The analysts formulated many arguments justifying their views, both bullish and bearish. Let’s list the most commonly presented, starting from the former group:

In short, more dovish US monetary policy, combining with maturing economic cycles and rising inflation and the risk of recession, should strengthen gold.

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