Large Cap Report: Best And Worst - May 13, 2014

Our top scoring large cap stocks from 1 year ago produced an average 325 bps of excess return to the S&P 500 over the past year. The best performers from a year ago (5/14/2013) are NOC up 57%, EA up 57%, WFT up 57%, MGA up 55%, and SWY up 55%.

  • The best large cap sector is utilities.
  • The top large cap industry is aerospace/defense

The average large cap score is 59.35, above the four week moving average score of 58.46. The average large cap stock is trading -10% below its 52 week high, 3.11% above its 200 dma, has 3.87 days to cover held short, and is expected to grow EPS by 13.5% next year.
 
Utilities remain the best scoring sector; however, we're starting to see other sectors rotate. Industrials, healthcare, basics, and consumer all score above average this week.  Financials, technology, and services score below average.

LG CAP       5/15/2014 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST          
Sigma Aldrich SIAL HEALTHCARE SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 110 97.5
Amphenol Corp APH TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 105 103.75
Johnson & Johnson JNJ HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 105 103.75
Autonation AN SERVICES AUTO DEALERSHIPS 100 91.25
Avalonbay Comm. AVB FINANCIALS REITS 100 100
Burger King BKW SERVICES RESTAURANTS 100 102.5
Chesapeake Energy CHK BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 100 98.75
The Directv Group Inc DTV TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 100 96.25
Energizer Hldgs Inc ENR INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 100 86.25
Eqt Corp EQT UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES 100 103.75
General Dynamics GD INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 100 98.75
Green Mtn. Coffee Roasters GMCR CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 100 95
Idexx Lab IDXX HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES 100 93.75
Illumina ILMN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 100 92.5
Kellogg Company K CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 100 101.25
Lorillard Inc LO CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 100 97.5
Lam Research Corp LRCX TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 100 92.5
Microchip Tech MCHP TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 100 91.25
O'Reilly Auto ORLY SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 100 98.75
American Int'l Group AIG FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 95 76.25
Albemarle Corp ALB BASIC MATERIALS SYNTHETICS 95 75
Autozone AZO SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 95 93.75
Cummins Inc CMI INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 93.75
Camden Ppty CPT FINANCIALS REITS 95 95
C V S Corp CVS SERVICES DRUG STORES 95 93.75
Walt Disney Company DIS SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 95 87.5
Dover Corp DOV INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 93.75
DaVita Inc DVA HEALTHCARE SPECIALIZED HEALTH SERVICES 95 92.5
EnCana Corp ECA BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 95
Edison Intl EIX UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 97.5
Endo Health Solutions ENDP HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 71.25
E O G Resources EOG BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 93.75
Essex Ppty Trust ESS FINANCIALS REITS 95 97.5
Entergy Corp New ETR UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 95
Edwards Lifesciences EW HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 95 97.5
Halliburton HAL BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 93.75
L3 Communications LLL SERVICES SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES 95 93.75
Eli Lilly LLY HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 95
M & T Bank MTB FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 95 87.5
Nextera Energy NEE UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 98.75
Northrup Grumman NOC INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 87.5
Reynolds American RAI CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 95 95
S L Green SLG FINANCIALS REITS 95 95
Snap On Inc SNA INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 95 93.75
Transdigm Group Inc. TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 93.75
Tyson Foods TSN CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 95 92.5
Weatherfold International Inc WFT BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 95
Alexion Pharma ALXN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 90 93.75
B P plc BP BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 90 81.25
Campbell Soup CPB CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 90 87.5
Eastman Chemical Co EMN BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 90 86.25
Gilead GILD HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 90 80
Intel INTC TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE 90 81.25
Mdu Res Group Inc MDU INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS 90 93.75
Public Storage PSA FINANCIALS REITS 90 86.25
Constellation Brands STZ CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 90 92.5
United Therapeutics UTHR HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 90 68.75
Vornado Rlty Tr VNO FINANCIALS REITS 90 86.25
Wells Fargo WFC FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 90 88.75
           
WORST          
Fireeye Inc FEYE TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 15 17.5
Leucadia Nat'l LUK CONGLOMERATES CONGLOMERATES 15 17.5
Nomura Holdings NMR FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 15 17.5
A S M L Holding ASML TECHNOLOGY   20 20
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY SERVICES HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 20 16.25
Gerdau SA GGB BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 20 21.25
Rackspace Hosting Inc. RAX TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES 20 20

Aerospace/defense (GD, TDG, NOC, SPR, RTN, BEAV, BA) is the top scoring large cap industry heading into summer air show order season. Pipelines (SE, WMB) score high and benefit from increased shale production. REITs (AVB, SLG, ESS, CPT, VNO, PSA) benefit from low interest rate capacity additions, improving vacancy rates (office), and solid effective rents. Beverages (STZ, MNST, DPS, BF.B) tend to trade higher heading into summer peak demand. Cigarettes (LO, RAI, MO) offer upside as managers tend to de-risk into summer.

In large cap basics, buy pipelines, major chemicals (EMN, SHW, ASH), and independent oil & gas (CHK, EOG, ECA). In consumer goods, focus on beverages, cigarettes, and processed & packaged foods (K, GMCR, CPB, MJN). In financials, the best industries include REITs, credit services (SLM, MCO, DFS, COF), and P&C insurers (AIG, WRB, XL, TRV, PRE). P&C insurers tend to post solid returns through the summer hurricane season. In healthcare, the best scoring groups include healthcare plans (HUM, CI, WLP, AET), drugmakers (JNJ, LLY, ENDP, UTHR, ALXN, NVS), and medical appliances (EW, ZMH, RMD, MDT). Medicaid expansion is significantly boosting revenue for private Medicaid insurers. Every industrial goods basket scores above average this week, led by aerospace/defense, diversified machinery (DOV, CMI, ITW, XYL), and industrial equipment (ROP, PNR).  The top services industries are drug stores (CVS, RAD), railroads (UNP, NSC, CSX), and grocers (KR). In technology, concentrate on domestic telecom (CTL, T), diversified communication (AMT), and semi ICs (TSM, SKWS, MRVL).

LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   5/15/2014
Sector Industry SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS PIPELINES 77.50
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 75.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 71.18
BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 70.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 67.50
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 65.45
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 50.83
BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 50.00
BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 44.17
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 39.29
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 76.67
CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 76.25
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 73.13
CONSUMER GOODS FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 72.50
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 64.17
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 56.11
CONSUMER GOODS PERSONAL PRODUCTS 45.00
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR 38.33
FINANCIALS REITS 77.38
FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 68.13
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 60.00
FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 55.00
FINANCIALS LIFE INSURANCE 51.67
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 51.50
FINANCIALS FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS 50.00
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 47.50
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 43.75
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 36.25
FINANCIALS SAVINGS & LOANS 35.00
HEALTHCARE HEALTH CARE PLANS 70.00
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 66.96
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 61.25
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 55.56
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 53.33
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 78.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 70.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS 63.75
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 57.00
SERVICES DRUG STORES 75.00
SERVICES RAILROADS 75.00
SERVICES GROCERY STORES 61.67
SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 61.25
SERVICES LODGING 61.25
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 61.00
SERVICES AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES 58.75
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 55.50
SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 55.00
SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 53.57
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 52.86
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 51.67
SERVICES DRUGS WHOLESALE 50.00
SERVICES RESORTS AND CASINOS 36.67
TECHNOLOGY TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC 71.67
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 68.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 67.50
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 66.67
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 63.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 62.50
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 62.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE 61.25
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 58.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS 56.67
TECHNOLOGY TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 50.83
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER 50.00
TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 50.00
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 48.50
TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 48.00
TECHNOLOGY DATA STORAGE DEVICES 41.25
UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 70.71
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 60.50
UTILITIES FOREIGN UTILITIES 58.33
 

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