Is This A Leading Indicator For The Jobs Market?

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Ever since the positive vaccine data came out, we have been previewing the spike in travel spending. It’s finally here. As you can see from the chart below, airline spending by the traditionalist generation has more than doubled since late last year. These retired folks spend a lot on vacations. They are about to make up for their missed vacations last year. This is just the beginning of the spending boost.

Spending on lodging hasn’t recovered much yet, but we expect it will this summer. Millennials should be a few months behind traditionalists because they will get the vaccines later. 2.079 million vaccines are going out per day. Most seniors have gotten it. At this pace, 75% of America will be vaccinated in six months.

With the recent approval of the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine, it should happen even sooner. As of Friday, March 5, there were only 42,541 Americans in the hospital. It’s closing in on the lowest level since the pandemic began in the spring of 2020.

Jobless Claims Rise Slightly

In the week of Feb. 27, jobless claims rose from 736,000 to 745,000, which was 15,000 below estimates. We should see a decline in March. Our expectations for an improvement are increasing quickly. Non-seasonally adjusted claims rose 32,000 to 748,000, and PUAs rose 9,000 to 437,000. As you can see from the chart below, in the past three weeks, the movement in California’s PUAs + PEUCs has more than made up the national change.  

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