Ice Cubes In The Forecast. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with Challenger Job Cuts (JAN) at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims (30/JAN), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (30/JAN), Unit Labour Cost QoQ Prel (Q4), Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel (Q4) at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM (DEC) and Factory Orders ex Transportation (DEC) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:3o A.M., and Fed Daly Speech at 1:00 P.M.

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On the Corn front, we came out of the blocks lower but proceeded to trade higher in yesterday’s trading session and settled unchanged. Talk on the street is traders are expecting a good export sales number with renewed weather concerns in Argentina. There are also whispers that the African Swine Fever back in the China hog herd. Commercials were rolling shorts from the March contract to the May contract with no word as of yet on fund activity. Traders do expect China be back on the dance floor buying U.S. corn and soybeans soon as they were busy with purchases last week. In the overnight electronic session, the March corn is currently trading at 556 ½ which is 4 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 558 to 551.

On the Ethanol front, the EIA data showed ethanol production was up from last week but down from last year while ethanol stocks were up from last week and a year ago. Traders are also aware that China is kicking tires and sniffing out prices and could purchase produce at any time and at the right price. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The April ethanol settled at 1.749 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.501 and 2 offers @ 1.749 with Open Interest.

On the Crude Oil front, prices continue to trend higher after OPEC+ alliance of major producers kept reduced output policy at a meeting on Wednesday. The EIA also showed crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. fell to the lowest level since March of last year. The same month lockdowns were implemented, and the Russian-Saudi price war was not far off and drove prices to the negative in May. Brent crude hit their highest level since Feb 21, 2020.

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