While natural gas prices remain at very low levels historically, we have now put together nearly a 10 cent rally off the multi-year lows set late last week. The July contract closed the day up just over 4 cents, closing a tick under the $2.40 level. 

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Changes in supply/demand balance data along with firmer cash prices certainly helped the market set at least a temporary bottom, but weather changes have grown increasingly bullish as well compared to what we saw at the conclusion of last week. 

It took a couple of days, but those warmer risks have become much more apparent. Take, for example, the 7-11 day surface temperature anomaly forecast from the GEFS back on Sunday: 

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The current forecast, valid the same period, has shifted decidedly warmer: 

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The changes continued beyond this period as well, as can be seen by comparing Sunday's 11-15 day GEFS forecast to the latest run, valid the same dates. Here is Sunday's run: 

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Now, the latest run: 

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