Here Today Gone Tomorrow

The U.S. will be a net exporter of petroleum -- and energy in general -- next year, years sooner than previous annual estimates, something the EIA flagged in its short-term outlook earlier this month. That’s due to the faster increases in crude and natural gas liquids production, combined with slower demand growth, according to EIA Administrator Linda Capuano.

For crude, the longer-term chart formations look very bullish. A potential reverse head and shoulders is signaling a move back to the $70 WTI handle, with the fundamentals outlook suggesting a major tightening of supply that will be enhanced by potential Venezuelan sanctions. Long term strategies, with futures hedged with options, should be the best way to take advantage of this coming move and help you ride out the turbulence.

More from the EIA. The United States becomes a net energy exporter in 2020 and remains so throughout the projection period as a result of large increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production coupled with slow growth in U.S. energy consumption.

Of the fossil fuels, natural gas and NGPLs have the highest production growth, and NGPLs account for almost one-third of cumulative U.S. liquids production during the projection period. Natural gas prices remain comparatively low based on historical prices during the projection period, leading to increased use of this fuel across end-use sectors and increased liquefied natural gas exports.

The power sector experiences a notable shift in fuels used to generate electricity, driven in part by historically low natural gas prices. Increased natural gas-fired electricity generation; larger shares of intermittent renewables; and additional retirements of less economic coal and nuclear plants occur during the projection period.

Increasing energy efficiency across end-use sectors keeps U.S. energy consumption relatively flat, even as the U.S. economy continues to expand.

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