Have Commodities Peaked?

We targeted price lows from 2012~2014 as a potential upside price target if the rally phase continues. After breaking the major downward sloping price trend, it is very likely that once DBC prices rally above $18.50, a continued rally phase may target the $25 price level with an extended run over many months.

Historically, a rally in commodities does not always prompt a rally in the US major indexes. In 2007~08, commodities rallied extensively while the US stock market collapsed.In 2010~11, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 27%.In 2016~2018, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 62%. The current breakout above the RED longer-term price channel suggests we may see a stock market rally aligned with a commodity price rally based on the recent comments by the US Fed. Unless a major credit market or other catastrophic event takes place, we believe this upward trend in commodities may prompt an extended recovery rally in both commodities and the US stock market.

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