Has The Next Bull Market For Gold Started?

XAU/AUD Gold In Australian Dollar Weekly Chart


The yellow metal in Australian Dollar terms has broken to a new all-time high above 22 Aug 2011 high, which now makes it bullish against 15 Dec 2016 low (1534.8) in the first degree. Rally from there is also showing a 5 swing up, favoring further upside while dips stay above 1534.8.

The yellow metal also almost makes all-time high against Canadian Dollar. It is only CAD$47 away from the all-time high in Canadian dollar's term. Thus, major developed economies currencies have started to fall in value against the yellow metal in 2019. Gold against the Japanese Yen also looks like a multi-year Elliott Wave symmetrical triangle which likely break out to the upside like chart below shows:

XAU/JPY Gold in Japanese Yen Weekly Chart


A separate cycle analysis on USD cycle we did last year remains valid. The analysis seems to suggest that USD has made an important high in year 2017 and can be due for multi-year decline like the chart below shows:

US Dollar Time Cycle Analysis


With the Fed close to ending the current rate hike cycle while other central banks like the ECB catches up, USD may finally start to weaken this year. When this happens, Gold (XAUUSD) can finally catch up higher. The key level for the yellow metal remains to be 12 Feb 2018 high at $1361 as chart below shows. A break above there can take us to $1700 as the next swing target

XAU/USD Gold in U.S. Dollar Weekly Chart

Chart of Gold against USD showing key level at 1361


The structure of weekly Gold above is a multi year rounded bottom (inverse head and shoulder) with a neckline at $1361. A break above the neckline at $1361 suggests a move higher to $1700, which is the same distance from the head to the neckline.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and price action may have changed since the writing time of the article.

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