Grains Report - Wednesday, Sept. 9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in response to the stronger US Dollar and strong production estimates from ABRES in Australia. Australian production could be about 28 million tons this year, a huge increase from the 15 million tons produced a year ago. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas. Black Sea prices have been firming in the last couple of weeks. The Russian farmer is not selling to exporters as they can get better prices internally. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. However, a frost is forecast for these areas this week and some light damage is possible to some crops. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 543, 542, and 539 December, with resistance at 551, 560, and 570 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 450 and 429 December. Support is at 465, 463, and 457 December, with resistance at 477, 482, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 535, 533, and 530 December, and resistance is at 545, 549, and 554 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday. The market is looking for Rice and is not finding much selling interest from producers. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality is called average to above average. Brazil is reported to have bought a couple of cargoes of Rice late last week as it has run short. The fact that Brazil is buying from the US means that competition for sales in the Western Hemisphere will be significantly less this year and should support somewhat higher prices for US Rice and futures markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231 1220, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1254, 1260, and 1267 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying. The demand continues as unknown destinations bought 101,500 tons of US Corn over the weekend. The rains seen over the weekend were beneficial and more are coming. It is much cooler in the Midwest now and a frost is possible in northern Minnesota and northern North Dakota. Demand has also been strong with a lot of Chinese buying. China has bought a lot of US Corn lately to fulfill short domestic production. China has also been offering Corn out of state reserves to try to keep the market supplied and has apparently succeeded as demand for the domestic Corn has tailed off in the latest round of offers. The US harvest is getting ready to start and there will be less production than had been estimated earlier by the trade. The production should still be enough to add to ending stocks even with the strong Chinese demand. The current higher prices might not last much longer and a move back down into harvest lows is probable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 365, 367, and 374 December. Support is at 359, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 363, 364, and 371 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 263 December. Support is at 261, 260, and 255 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher, but Soybean Meal was lower. Soybeans made new highs for the move and Soybean Oil is locked in a range. Rains and cooler temperatures were seen in the Midwest starting on Sunday and should continue through the balance of this week. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity. The production totals are expected to be big, although not as large as the original forecasts made by private analysts. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll. Demand from China has held strong but might be about to end. China is now booking Soybeans into dates that are close to the first shipping dates from Brazil and will no doubt start to look to the south for additional supplies. Prices for new crop Soybeans are cheaper in Brazil.
Overnight News: USDA said that 238,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to China and 132,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 959, 957, and 942 November, and resistance is at 980, 986, and 992 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 3215.00 and 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 313.00, 315.00, and 318.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher last week on the back of rallies in Chicago and Dalian Soybean Oil. It was lower on Monday but higher today. Demand reports from the private surveyors were down and this is becoming a bigger problem for higher prices. Production ideas are down as workers for the plantations are harder to find, but the market appears to have priced itself out of the demand base. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher as a freeze is in the forecast and could threaten some crops. Canola closed higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warm and most areas have seen rain. It will turn colder this week and some of the Prairie provinces will see a frost or light freeze. The cold air even is not expected to hurt Canola all that much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 521.00 November. Support is at 508.00, 502.00, and 501.00 November, with resistance at 515.00, 518.00, and 521.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2700 November, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 November.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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