Grains Report - Wednesday, Sept. 30

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed lower with HRW and HRS the weakest markets. SRW closed just slightly lower. The trade is watching the weather and growing conditions around the world as well as the world Wheat price. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers and a weaker US Dollar. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Argentina got some very beneficial rains over the weekend. Australia has seen some cold temperatures in recent days and some southern growing areas could have seen a frost or a freeze. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 544, 551, and 538 December, with resistance at 554, 560, and 568 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 475, 470, and 467 December, with resistance at 484, 490, and 500 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 523, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 529, 533, and 536 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher in range trading. It was another quiet session. There was talk in the market that Iraq had tendered, but there was no result announced. The weekly export sales report was positive for the second week in a row. Export sales were down but still well above the four-week average. Brazil was a buyer of 7,000 tons of Rough Rice and much of Central America was noted buying as well. Total Brazil purchases are now 37,000 tons. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1232, and 1222 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and Oats were higher. Corn held an important chart point once again, but closed on a weaker note due to good harvest conditions in the Midwest. It posted a reversal on Monday but there was very limited follow through buying noted yesterday. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be completed now. Mexico was the strongest importer of US Corn last month. USDA has found less damage to crops in Iowa and northern Illinois due to the drought and derecho winds that hit both areas a month ago. That allowed for the higher yield, production, and ending stocks estimates. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The yield reports appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 357 and 346 December. Support is at 361, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 367, 370, and 373 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 263 December. Support is at 274, 270, and 260 December, and resistance is at 280, 284, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower while Soybean Meal was higher. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until last week. Now it appears that China is away from the market. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but central and northern Brazil has been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. The lack of rain might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand this week;
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 215,000 tone of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 977 and 943 November. Support is at 985, 982, and 967 November, and resistance is at 997, 1008, and 1012 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 316.00 and 301.00 October. Support is at 327.00, 319.00, and 313.00 October, and resistance is at 338.00, 340.00, and 348.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3050 October. Support is at 3250, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3370 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on ideas of increasing production. It was unchanged to firm today. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Canola was lower on follow through selling. Canola farmers and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar was slightly lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 514.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 501.00 November, with resistance at 521.00, 524.00, and 528.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2670 December, with resistance at 2830, 2870, and 2920 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Occasional scattered showers, mostly near the weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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