Grains Report - Wednesday, Nov. 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher in response to the USDA reports. USDA did not change US production but did cut ending stocks due to a slight increase in demand. US weather is much improved with some precipitation reported in parts of the western Great Plains. Only southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain dry. It was very warm last week, but wetter and cooler weather is expected this week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some light showers. Western Australia conditions are improving. The rains in the midwestern parts of the US are the most substantial and will have helped solve the longer term drought problem out there. The showers in Ukraine and Russia are too late to give much help, but some plants will become better established. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 595, 591, and 587 December, with resistance at 616, 626, and 636 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 583 December. Support is at 549, 546, and 536 December, with resistance at 569, 581, and 585 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 552, 547, and 540 December, and resistance is at 573, 576, and 579 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher after trading lower during the day. USDA cut production slightly and cut exports by a bigger amount. The report should have been a little negative for futures. Export demand has been strong in general but was very weak last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good in areas not hit by the hurricanes. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1234, 1223, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1250, 1257, and 1262 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher in response to the USDA reports. USDA cut production and increased demand to make ending stocks estimates near 1.7 billion bushels and well below all trade estimates. Traders expected USDA to show less production for the US and potentially also in Ukraine and South America, but the magnitude of the cuts to ending stocks was a total surprise. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. Rain was reported in many areas yesterday and it has turned cooler, but not cold, now. It should now be dry with near normal temperatures. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 417, 410, and 402 December, and resistance is at 428, 431, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 312, 322, and 331 December. Support is at 305, 300, and 296 December, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 315 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed decreased production and increased demand to put ending stocks estimates well below all trade ideas. The direction of the USDA reports was not a surprise but the magnitude of the drop in ending stocks was. China had not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over two weeks. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and warmer last week. It rained yesterday in much of the Midwest and temperatures have cooled to near normal levels. Drier but cooler weather is now in the forecast. The weather in South America is improved. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1108, 1100, and 1080 January, and resistance is at 1160, 1172, and 1184 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 393.00, 390.00, and 384.00 December, and resistance is at 404.00, 407.00, and 410.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3650 and 3770 December. Support is at 3520, 3490, and 3410 December, with resistance at 3620, 3650, and 3680 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports and on ideas of decreasing production and private reports of stronger demand. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola was higher on the strong price action in Chicago caused by the USDA reports. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are mostly up in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 563.00 January.. Support is at 552.00, 543.00, and 540.00 January, with resistance at 559.00, 562.00, and 565.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3260 and 3440 January. Support is at 3160, 3120, and 3070 January, with resistance at 3260, 3280, and 3310 January.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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