Grains Report - Wednesday, May 20

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher in fund-related buying. HRW markets were lower. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets, but reports that Russia and Europe are turning dry again has supported the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. These areas have turned dry again. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 492 and 468 July. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 July, with resistance at 506, 508, and 513 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 436 and 418 July. Support is at 439, 431, and 428 July, with resistance at 450, 457, and 468 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 502, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 514, 517, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. The fundamentals are mostly the same and unchanged for the last few weeks. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and the funds have been buying. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain but the crop is being planted. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace, in general, has been very good. However, they were a marketing-year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1581, 1562, and 1554 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Oats were lower but still look strong on the charts. It is possible that Corn futures have seen at least a short term low. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government-mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower, Soybean Oil lower, and Soybean Meal a little lower. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased biofuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2810, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils markets were all higher yesterday. Palm Oil closed lower on Chicago price action and despite ideas of increasing demand for biofuels and consumer consumption as edible oil. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there. Canola was unchanged to higher yesterday. Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has biofuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.