Grains Report - Wednesday, Dec. 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on follow-through selling tied to news that the Russian government has proposed to increase the export quota at a time of high feed and food costs inside the country. Reports of very strong production in Australia were also negative for prices. Australia estimates its production above 31 million tons but traders think production could be over 34 million tons. Canada will announce its estimate later this week and a big production estimate is expected. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the Great Plains in recent days, but it fell mostly in eastern areas and not in the west. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been late to help much with establishment but will help with soil moisture into the Spring. Western Australia's conditions are good after some rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather except for some showers on Wednesday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 565 and 531 March. Support is at 574, 568, and 558 March, with resistance at 590, 600, and 608 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 514 and 474 March. Support is at 533, 528, and 524 March, with resistance at 550, 559, and 568 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 537 March. Support is at 546, 543, and 537 March, and resistance is at 560, 564, and 570 March.

green tractor on green field during daytime

image source

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower after a more quiet session. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. Export demand has held well despite the higher prices. The harvest is over with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Quality is said to be good to very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1277 and 1308 January. Support is at 1248, 1245, and 1241 January, with resistance at 1262, 1270, and 1276 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow-through selling tied to reports of needed rains in South America. US weather was great for harvesting last week in the Midwest and most of the fieldwork is complete. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have seen some very beneficial rains in some areas and at least a little rain in most areas this weekend with more expected early this week. The rains are expected to move into central and northern Brazil by the end of the week. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 436, 439, and 442 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 285 and 282 March. Support is at 289, 284, and 281 March, and resistance is at 298, 304, and 309 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower as needed rains continued to fall in South America. Production potential has been threatened there due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. More rains are expected in southern Brazil and Argentina early this week, then the rains are expected to move north into central and northern Brazil by the end of the week. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was once again a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1153 and 1127 March. Support is at 1168, 1162, and 1161 January, and resistance is at 1183, 1200, and 1208 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 389.00, 386.00, and 379.00 January, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3570 and 3400 March. Support is at 3640, 3600, and 3510 January, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3900 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker competing vegetable oils prices and fears about demand. Indonesian biofuels demand has been less. New that India had cut its import tariffs on Palm Oil supported the futures market on Friday and forced the higher weekly close. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Chart trends are still up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola was higher. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option, but fading values in Palm Oil now are a concern. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks. Canola farmers have reduced selling so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong. However, Statistics Canada is expected to cut its production estimate his week. The Canadian Grains Commission said that Chinese import of Canadian Canola were 716,400 tons at the end of October, from 381,000 tons the previous year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 573.00, 564.00, and 560.00 January, with resistance at 585.00, 589.00, and 592.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3240, and 3200 February, with resistance at 3420, 3440, and 3470 February.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.