Grains Report - Wednesday, Dec. 16

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher after holding support on the charts. Futures have rallied in the last few days in reaction to the news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxes of $30.00 per ton on Wheat along with taxes on some other agricultural products. News that Egypt paid its highest price in five years for Romanian and Ukrainian Wheat was also bullish. Speculators were the best buyers. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve slightly with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 639 March. Support is at 594, 584, and 572 March, with resistance at 610, 622, and 623 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 602 March. Support is at 557, 553, and 545 March, with resistance at 576, 586, and 588 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 553, 548, and 543 March, and resistance is at 565, 574, and 581 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower with speculators moving from January to March positions. Trading volumes were good because of the roll yesterday, but have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1221, 1220, and 1215 January, with resistance at 1240, 1250, and 1252 January.

selective focus photo of plant

Image Source: Unsplash

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged while Oats moved lower for the first time in a couple of weeks. Corn is being supported by firming basis levels in the US and South America. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week and more is in the forecasts for the coming two weeks. No one will see showers or rains each day, but just about everyone should get at least some precipitation over the two week period. Southern Brazil and Argentina should get important rains today, then drier weather again. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The current drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 428, 430, and 436 March. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 330, and 325 March, and resistance is at 335, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher as cash markets are firm and despite better rains in South America and the lack of Chinese demand for US Soybeans. US and South American cash markets have been firming despite the sideways action of late in futures. The NOPA crush report was called bullish for Soybeans and both products. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled some contracts made to unknown destinations again in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains have moved to the north to help out producers in central and northern Brazil. Other rains are being seen in the south over the next couple of days, then drier conditions are forecast. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1168, 1152, and 1148 January, and resistance is at 1186, 1200, and 1220 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 392.00 and 401.00 January. Support is at 381.00, 376.00, and 366.00 January, and resistance is at 392.00, 394.00, and 401.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3830, 3810, and 3790 January, with resistance at 3900, 3920, and 3960 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on the price action in Chicago and petroleum futures. The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report last week and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia in part due to the difficulty of sourcing plantation workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher with Chicago. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 632.00 an 640.00 January. Support is at 593.00, 589.00, and 584.00 January, with resistance at 601.00, 604.00, and 607.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3470, 3350, and 3530 February.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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