Grains Report - Tuesday, Nov. 17
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher after starting the day lower as the world heard that even more vaccines have been discovered to combat the Coronavirus. Russia has declined to put quotas on its export program until the middle of February. The charts show that more moves higher are likely over time. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain the driest. It was cool last week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been light and the condition of the crop has not improved that much. Western Australia conditions are improving after some recent rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 560, 538, and 530 December. Support is at 586, 580, and 576 December, with resistance at 613, 616, and 626 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531, 512, and 511 December. Support is at 539, 536, and 534 December, with resistance at 560, 569, and 581 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 539, 524, and 523 December. Support is at 544, 540, and 535 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in response to the weak tone in the domestic cash market. Export demand was weaker again last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere. The USDA reports showed a little less yield and production and less export demand for long grain. Ending stocks were increased and are high.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1244, 1250, and 1257 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in response to news that more vaccines had been discovered to combat the Coronavirus. The WASDE reports showed less US production and bigger export demand than expected. Futures moved to new highs for the move on the weekly charts, then gave back much of the rally to close with only moderate gains. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warn and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. The weather has turned cooler and a little wetter in the last week and this trend should continue for this week. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 195,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 402, 398, and 393 December, and resistance is at 417, 422, and 428 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 279 and 260 December. Support is at 291, 290, and 286 December, and resistance is at 300, 305, and 310 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and Soybean Meal closed a little higher in response to news that more vaccines had been discovered to combat the Coronavirus and on dry weather in South America. WASDE showed less production and bigger demand than expected and lower than expected ending stocks at 190 million bushels. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and cooler last week. The weather in South America is mixed. Showers and rains have fallen in northern Brazil. Southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay have missed out on good rains but have seen a shower or two. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1130, 1108, and 1104 January, and resistance is at 1162, 1172, and 1184 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 384.00, 380.00, and 375.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 401.00, and 404.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3770 and 3810 December. Support is at 3660, 3610, and 3570 December, with resistance at 3770, 3800, and 3830 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weak November export data from private sources. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on weaker US and world production estimates and strong demand ideas. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Soybean Oil has improved with India and South Korea buying significant amounts in the last week. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 673,991 tons so far this month, from 763,772 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 582.00 January.. Support is at 556.00, 552.00, and 546.00 January, with resistance at 565.00, 568.00, and 572.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3170 February, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3390 February.
Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...
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