Grains Report - Tuesday, Aug. 17

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed as world markets held strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas over the next week, then showers and cooler temperatures are in the forecast. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather, but a cold front could bring some relief in several days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 794 and 815 September. Support is at 748, 739, and 730 September, with resistance at 778, 784, and 790 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 780 September. Support is at 732, 718, and 702 September, with resistance at 758, 764, and 780 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 957 and 995 September. Support is at 925, 920, and 905 September, and resistance is at 954, 960, and 966 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Asian prices are mostly steady this week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1362, 1387, and 1390 September. Support is at 1341, 1337, and 1335 September, with resistance at 1368, 1389, and 1394 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on what appeared to be some speculative selling in light volume trading. Trends are up on the charts. The weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher on ideas of small production. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential in Ohio and eastern Indiana and mixed but generally better than expected production potential in South Dakota and part of Nebraska.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 594, 607, and 615 September. Support is at 559, 550, and 544 September, and resistance is at 575, 579, and 589 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 509 September. Support is at 494, 475, and 467 September, and resistance is at 500, 506, and 512 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher in response to positive demand news, but Soybean Oil was lower along with weakness in Crude Oil futures. Chart trends remain mostly sideways in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler and parts of central Illinois turned too wet again after some big rains on Thursday night. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and nod the Dakotas are hot and dry. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential in Ohio and eastern Indiana and mixed but generally better than expected production potential in South Dakota and part of Nebraska.
Overnight News: China bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1428 and 1483 September. Support is at 1355, 1335, and 12330 September, and resistance is at 1388, 1394, and 1431 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 347.00, and 342.00 September, and resistance is at 364.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6200, 6100, and 6010 September, with resistance at 6440, 6520, and 6650 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher yesterday, but lower today on less than expected exports as reported by the private sources. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher on damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 888.00, 867.00, and 859.00 November, with resistance at 932.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4690 November. Support is at 4430, 4400, and 4320 November, with resistance at 4520, 4580, and 4640 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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