Grains Report - Thursday, Nov. 12

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Russia would not institute a quota system for exports until at least mid-February. The market had expected the quota to be instituted very soon, but the Russian move means that the country feels it has enough Wheat to permit additional exports of any volume. The move could hurt demand for US Wheat over time. USDA did not change US production but did cut ending stocks due to a slight increase in demand. US weather is much improved with some precipitation reported in parts of the western Great Plains. Only southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain dry. It was very warm last week, but wetter and cooler weather is expected this week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some light showers. Western Australia's conditions are improving. The rains in the midwestern parts of the US are the most substantial and will have helped solve the longer-term drought problem out there. The showers in Ukraine and Russia are too late to give much help, but some plants will become better established. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 594, 591, and 587 December, with resistance at 616, 626, and 636 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 583 December. Support is at 549, 546, and 536 December, with resistance at 569, 581, and 585 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 552, 547, and 540 December, and resistance is at 566, 573, and 576 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was about unchanged in very light volume trading. The main driver of the day was still the USDA reports from the previous day as there was nothing else really going on in the market. USDA cut production slightly and cut exports by a bigger amount. The report should have been a little negative for futures. Export demand has been strong in general but was very weak last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good in areas not hit by the hurricanes. Quality is said to be very good everywhere
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1234, 1223, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1250, 1257, and 1262 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower in consolidation trading. The UYSDA reports still affected the trade, but the weakness in Wheat futures hurt the price action. USDA cut production and increased demand to make ending stocks estimates near 1.7 billion bushels and well below all trade estimates. Traders expected USDA to show less production for the US and potentially also in Ukraine and South America, but the magnitude of the cuts to ending stocks was a total surprise. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. It has turned cooler, but not cold, now, and remains dry after some showers and storms moved through the region on Tuesday. It should now be dry with near to below normal temperatures. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 417, 410, and 402 December, and resistance is at 428, 431, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 312, 322, and 331 December. Support is at 300, 296, and 291 December, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 315 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products closed higher on the dry conditions in South America and in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed decreased production and increased demand to put ending stocks estimates well below all trade ideas. The direction of the USDA reports was not a surprise but the magnitude of the drop in ending stocks was. China had not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over two weeks. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and warmer last week. It rained yesterday in much of the Midwest and temperatures have cooled to near-normal levels. Drier but cooler weather is now in the forecast. The weather in South America is improved but it is still very dry overall. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil but conditions have been mixed, with some areas getting good rains but many areas still dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1108, 1100, and 1080 January, and resistance is at 1162, 1172, and 1184 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 390.00, 384.00, and 380.00 December, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3770 and 3810 December. Support is at 3610, 3570, and 3520 December, with resistance at 3740, 3770, and 3800 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies that will get tighter in the coming months. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola was higher on the strong price action in Chicago caused by the USDA reports and South American weather. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Canola oil the better option. Trends are mostly up in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 563.00 January.. Support is at 552.00, 546.00, and 543.00 January, with resistance at 559.00, 562.00, and 565.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3440 January. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3160 January, with resistance at 3370, 3400, and 3430 January.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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