Grains Report - Monday, Sept. 28

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on Friday and were lower for the week as the US Dollar turned higher and hurt demand hopes. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers, and the higher US Dollar against a basket of currencies makes this hard to happen. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the southern Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 530 and 504 December. Support is at 541, 537, and 516 December, with resistance at 554, 560, and 568 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 439 and 430 December. Support is at 470, 467, and 463 December, with resistance at 484, 490, and 500 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 529, 523, and 519 December, and resistance is at 536, 540, and 545 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower last week as the harvest pressure went against improved demand ideas. There was talk in the market that Iraq had tendered, but there was no result announced. The weekly export sales report was positive for the second week in a row. Export sales were down but still well above the four-week average. Brazil was a buyer of 7,000 tons of Rough Rice and much of Central America was noted buying as well. Total Brazil purchases are now 37,000 tons. The rebound in demand supported futures and pushed the market to test recent highs for the move. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1232, 1222, and 1210 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were both a little lower last week. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and initial yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be completed now. USDA has found less damage to crops in Iowa and northern Illinois due to the drought and derecho winds that hit both areas a month ago. That allowed for the higher yield, production, and ending stocks estimates. The harvest is concentrated in the southeast and Delta for now and has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The yield reports have been mixed but appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News: Japan bought 110,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 207,140 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 357 and 346 December. Support is at 362, 361, and 354 December, and resistance is at 368, 373, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 279, 275, and 273 December, and resistance is at 289, 290, and 292 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little lower for the week as the harvest started to expand and as reports indicated that the Chinese buying for the reserve was finished. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers on the week in futures. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been dry as has Argentina and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand this week;
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 110,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 977 and 943 November. Support is at 985, 982, and 967 November, and resistance is at 1027, 1037, and 1048 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 327.00, and 319.00 October, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 351.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3200, 3180, and 3160 October, with resistance at 3360, 3370, and 3400 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on ideas of increasing production. It was unchanged to firm today. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Soybean Oil was lower and Canola was lower. Canola farmers have withdrawn from the market and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. The Canadian Dollar has weakened and this has helped support Canola.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 514.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 515.00, 510.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 524.00, 528.00, and 534.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2850, 2790, and 2760 December, with resistance at 2930, 3000, and 3050 December.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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