Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 5

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved higher in response to the bullish USDA stocks in all positions reports. USDA said that Corn stocks were 1.995 billion bushels, below the average trade guess and below the lowest trade guess. It was much less than what USDA had forecast in the WASDE reports just a month earlier. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and initial yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. The harvest is still concentrated in the southeast and Delta for now but has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down. The yield reports have been mixed but appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 160,020 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 386 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 December, and resistance is at 386, 389, and 392 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 279, 275, and 270 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 291 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher for the week in reaction to the USDA stocks in all positions report. The report showed US Soybeans stocks at 523 million bushels, lower than the average trade guess and lower than the lowest trade guess. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1070 November. Support is at 1013, 995, and 993 November, and resistance is at 1035, 1037, and 1048 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 350.00, 353.00, and 356.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3210, and 3170 December, with resistance at 3340, 3400, and 3470 December.

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