Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and made new highs for the move last week. USDA released its stocks estimates and stocks were close to expectations at 2.158 billion bushels. US Whet production for 2020 was estimated by USDA at 1.83 billion bushels, down 5% from 2019. Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter production were down, but increases were noted for White Winter, Durum, and Other Spring Wheat. The world demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some big rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought. About a quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after some beneficial rains in some areas last week. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 561, 557, and 552 December, with resistance at 578, 587, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 498, 490, and 483 December, with resistance at 515, 525, and 528 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 531, 523, and 519 December, and resistance is at 540, 547, and 549 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher last week as the harvest pressure went against improved demand ideas. US export demand was very strong last week with over 121,000 tons sold. Brazil was the main buyer with over 70,000 tons purchased. Mexico and Honduras were also good buyers. There was talk in the market that Iraq had tendered, but there was no result announced. The rebound in demand supported futures and pushed the market to test recent highs for the move. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are down with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1239, 1237, and 1222 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved higher in response to the bullish USDA stocks in all positions reports. USDA said that Corn stocks were 1.995 billion bushels, below the average trade guess and below the lowest trade guess. It was much less than what USDA had forecast in the WASDE reports just a month earlier. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and initial yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. The harvest is still concentrated in the southeast and Delta for now but has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down. The yield reports have been mixed but appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 160,020 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 386 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 December, and resistance is at 386, 389, and 392 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 279, 275, and 270 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 291 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher for the week in reaction to the USDA stocks in all positions report. The report showed US Soybeans stocks at 523 million bushels, lower than the average trade guess and lower than the lowest trade guess. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1070 November. Support is at 1013, 995, and 993 November, and resistance is at 1035, 1037, and 1048 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 350.00, 353.00, and 356.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3210, and 3170 December, with resistance at 3340, 3400, and 3470 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on crude oil price action and nes that the president had contracted the COVID-19. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Canola was lower. Canola farmers and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar was higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 508.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 521.00, 524.00, and 528.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2830, 2870, and 2920 December.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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