Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 30
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher with HRW futures leading the way. HRW could be breaking out to the upside. The charts show that more moves higher are likely over time. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the Great Plains last week, but it fell mostly in eastern areas and not in the west. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been late to help much with establishment but will help with soil moisture into the Spring. Western Australia conditions are good after some rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 597, 589, and 585 March, with resistance at 602, 623, and 629 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 550, 547, and 539 March, with resistance at 575, 586, and 592 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 559, 555, and 553 March, and resistance is at 573, 581, and 586 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week as prices rallied to new recent highs on Friday. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is over with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Quality is said to be good to very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1277 and 1308 January. Support is at 1262, 1248, and 1245 January, with resistance at 1276, 1280, and 1291 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week in reaction to ideas of strong export demand and reports of dry conditions in South America. Futures made new highs for the move on the weekly charts and made a new high close. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News: USDA said that 140,000 tons of US Corn were sold to unlnown destinations and another 204,000 tons of Corn were received for delivery
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 423, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 436, 439, and 442 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 297 and 285 March. Support is at 292, 289, and 284 March, and resistance is at 304, 309, and 311 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little higher on the warm and dry weather in South America. Production potential is being threatened there due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was once again a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1174, 1168, and 1162 January, and resistance is at 1200, 1208, and 1220 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 390.00, 386.00, and 379.00 January, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3730, and 3710 January, with resistance at 3900, 3930, and 3960 January.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher after trending lower for much of the week. Futures were lower today. New that India had cut its import tariffs on Palm Oil supported the futures market on Friday and forced the higher weekly close. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Chart trends are still up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas. Soybean Oil was a follower. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 580.00, 577.00, and 573.00 January, with resistance at 589.00, 592.00, and 595.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3240, 3220, and 3200 February, with resistance at 3420, 3440, and 3470 February.
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