Grains Report - Monday, May 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower for the week. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia is likely to get some very beneficial rains this week. The rains in Russia have come at a time when the crop most needs them, but the rain is only hitting central and northern areas and is leaving southern areas dry. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It was very cold over the weekend in many SRW areas and a frost or freeze hit many Wheat areas and caused some losses. Reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. It was clod over the weekend, but not cold enough to inflict more damage. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress. Cold weather was also reported in these areas over the weekend and some losses are possible.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers over the middle of the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 512, 506, and 494 July, with resistance at 535, 540, and 542 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 474, 470, and 468 July, with resistance at 489, 496, and 508 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 506, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as May moved through the delivery cycle. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and July closed on a firm note for the week. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace, in general, has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1588 July. Support is at 1505, 1498, and 1438 July, with resistance at 1550, 1562, and 1572 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on reports of new Chinese demand and forecasts for some freezing temperatures over the weekend in important areas of the Corn Belt. It is possible that futures have seen at least a short term low. China bought well over 600,000 tons of US Corn last week to give the market a demand boost when it really needed it. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, but it is unclear if the employees will go back to work at this time. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. The processors are opening again but not all workers are going back to work due to fears about their health. It was very cold over the weekend and freezes were reported in some areas of the Midwest and Great Plains. Some of the crops could be lost and will need to be replanted.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 323 and 346 July. Support is at 320, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 327, 332, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 303 and 311 July. Support is at 295, 289, and 285 July, and resistance is at 303, 306, and 309 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed last week with Soybeans a little higher and Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil mostly a little lower. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China and on some weather premium that arrived late in the week. China used the break in prices to buy at least 300,000 tons of Soybeans and possibly more. About 120,000 tons of sales to unknown destinations was confirmed by USDA on Friday and more confirmations are expected. The news buoyed a market in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. The weather became more important late in the week as the weekend was to turn very cold with freezing temperatures forecast for many areas. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. It is turning warmer this week so what damage was done over the weekend will be all the damage for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 842, 832, and 830 July, and resistance is at 857, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower after making new lows for the move on the weekly charts. Soybean Oil was higher last week and Canola was also higher. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil were hurt by the lack of biofuels demand, but the demand loss appears to be part of the market price now. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other biofuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for biofuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the Coronavirus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has biofuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. Weekly chart trends have turned up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 471.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2100, 2120, and 2180 July.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.