Grains Report - Monday, July 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and as the Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions. Yield reports from the region have been variable, but generally a little better than expected, so USDA might raise its production estimates nest month. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 514 and 537 September. Support is at 489, 481, and 471 September, with resistance at 500, 503, and 512 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 432, 424, and 418 September, with resistance at 446, 450, and 454 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 506 and 488 September. Support is at 506, 501, and 488 September, and resistance is at 518, 522, and 524 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in new crop months and lower for another week in old crop July. New crop months were relatively little changed as new crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1186 September. Support is at 1212, 1203, and 1201 September, with resistance at 1241, 1246, and 1266 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher in reaction to the surprise cut in planted area shown by USDA. The quarterly stocks report was bearish but the surprise of the report was a cut in planted area by US farmers from 97 million acres down to 92 million. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, but the weather market is coming as there are some forecasts for hot and dry weather for the next week or two. The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News: China bought202,000 tons and Mexico bought 182,880 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 355 September. Support is at 339, 332, and 326 September, and resistance is at 354, 356, and 361 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 278 and 266 September. Support is at 286, 283, and 279 September, and resistance is at 292, 298, and 301 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on more Chinese demand and less than expected planted area as shown by USDA on Tuesday. The quarterly stocks report was in line with trade expectations. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next couple of weeks. Ideas are that USDA will show slight deterioration in crop conditions this week.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 891 August. Support is at 880, 872, and 868 August, and resistance is at 896, 900, and 915 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 301.00 August. Support is at 292.00, 290.00, and 286.00 August, and resistance is at 298.00, 300.00, and 305.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2860, 2890, and 2910 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on the strength in the outside markets. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Canola was higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar and Chicago price action The planted area estimates were above trade expectations but below the previous year. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 480.00, 482.00, and 484.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 September. Support is at 2290, 2250, and 2200 September, with resistance at 2370, 2430, and 2470 September.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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