Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 21

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxing and issuing new export quotas on Wheat along with some other agricultural products. Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts closed higher. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains even though a few areas got some snow. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 606, 594, and 590 March, with resistance at 615, 620, and 623 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 564, 560, and 556 March, with resistance at 586, 588, and 597 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 588, 596, and 608 March. Support is at 563, 556, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 581, and 589 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. The weekly export sales report featured strong demand from Venezuela and strong demand overall and caused futures to rally. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. Futures have ignored the bearish data from the monthly WASDE reports in the past week and a half.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal today, then trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1275, 1308, and 1337 March. Support is at 1248, 1236, and 1230 January, with resistance at 1267, 1270, and 1276 January.

selective focus photo of plant

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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher and broke out to the upside on the daily and weekly charts. Oats moved lower as the sharp rally came to an end. New export demand was noted from China by USDA in the weekly export sales report. Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 439 and 453 March. Support is at 427, 424, and 418 March, and resistance is at 430, 442, and 445 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 335, 330, and 320 March, and resistance is at 343, 345, and 348 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on better demand for US Soybeans and despite rains in South America. Futures were able to move above 12.00 per bushel and a new leg higher has started on the daily and weekly charts. The weekly export sales report was above expectations and the NOPA crush was very strong. US ending stocks estimates now are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as tie goes on. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains are leaving southern Brazil and Argentina now and will move to the north. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1245 January. Support is at 1200, 1180, and 1172 January, and resistance is at 1220, 1236, and 1248 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 400.00, 394.00, and 391.00 January, and resistance is at 407.00, 410.00, and 413.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3930, 3900, and 3860 January, with resistance at 34020, 4050, and 4080 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher and made a new high weekly close. It was lower today on weakness in the outside markets. The market was supported late in the week by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas. Production problems for Soybeans in South America and a strike by workers at ports in Argentina helped Soybean Oil. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 640.00 January. Support is at 614.00, 601.00, and 599.00 January, with resistance at 625.00, 628.00, and 631.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3500, 3470, and 3390 February, with resistance at 3560, 3590, and 3620 February.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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