Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 14

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxing and issuing new export quotas on Wheat along with some other agricultural products. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry. USDA increased export demand and cut ending stocks in its supply and demand reports released Thursday.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers starting Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 639 March. Support is at 610, 600, and 592 March, with resistance at 623, 629, and 633 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 602 March. Support is at 575, 567, and 557 March, with resistance at 592, 598, and 604 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 596 March. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 March, and resistance is at 581, 586, and 589 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. USDA cut long grain export demand and increased ending stocks estimates in its supply and demand reports released on Thursday. The reports should have been bearish to prices but futures were able to rally anyway.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1221, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1252, 1256, and 1257 January.

selective focus photo of plant

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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher last week but held inside the previous week's trading range. Oats moved sharply higher again last week. Little export demand was noted from China by USDA in the weekly export sales report. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature. USDA made no changes to its supply and demand estimates released Thursday. The trade had expected more demand and less ending stocks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 427, 430, and 436 March. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 320, and 315 March, and resistance is at 339, 342, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower on better rains in South America and the lack of Chinese demand for US Soybeans. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled some contracts made to unknown destinations again in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains are leaving southern Brazil and Argentina now and will move to the north. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. USDA increased domestic demand for Soybeans in its monthly supply and demand updates but made no changes to export demand. Ending stocks were less, but the cut was less than the trade had expected and Soybeans started to move lower on Thursday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1143, 1138, and 1130 January, and resistance is at 1174, 1178, and 1183 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 376.00 and 363.00 January. Support is at 376.00, 366.00, and 362.00 January, and resistance is at 385.00, 392.00, and 394.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3660 January, with resistance at 3870, 3900, and 3920 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher and made a new high weekly close. The market was supported late in the week by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas. Soybean Oil was a follower. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 584.00, 576.00, and 571.00 January, with resistance at 594.00, 599.00, and 601.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3470, 3350, and 3530 February.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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