Grains Report - Friday, May 22

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in fund-related buying tied to the dry weather in Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. These areas have turned dry again. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week. End users are uncovered and will need to buy at some point.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 508, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 528, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 449, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 461, 468, and 473 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 510, 504, and 502 July, and resistance is at 526, 528, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. There is not much going on in this market these days. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop month of July. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Planting should be active again this week in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace, in general, has been very good. However, they were a marketing-year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is developing well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1591, 1581, and 1562 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower. Improved fundamentals are offering a little support, but overall attitudes are still bearish. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government-mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. Feed and ethanol demand are improving, but most still see a cut in these demand areas and increased ending stocks down the road for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased biofuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 279.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 277.00, and 274.00 July, and resistance is at 286.00, 288.00, and 290.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2760, 2810, and 2860 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower despite increasing demand for biofuels and consumer consumption as edible oil. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there and China has been a noted buyer recently. Canola was lower yesterday in part on the price action in Chicago. Speculators were the best sellers. Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed in Alberta from too much rain. Saskatchewan reported that planting was the same as the five-year average. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 464.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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