Photo by James Baltz on Unsplash

WHEAT 

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower again yesterday as the weekly export sales report once again showed poor demand.  The USDA reports released Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels.  The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia, as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies, caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 736, 714, and 697 March, with resistance at 758, 771, and 776 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 755, 751, and 747 March, with resistance at 777, 793, and 808 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 892, 888, and 871 March, and resistance is at 915, 933, and 940 March.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was about unchanged despite the USDA reports that showed less production and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but production was cut more.  Imports were also cut back for a big crop in overall supply.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1408 and 1363 March.  Support is at 1410, 1404, and 1390 March and resistance is at 1438, 1443, and 1450 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday and the short term trends remain sideways.  USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report yesterday and rains are on the way to help dry soils in South America.   USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have.  Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut.  Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Support came from dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  However, showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Most of Argentina will stay hot and dry while Brazil gets its showers.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 100,422 tons of US Corn. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 585, 5760 and 572 March, and resistance is at 601, 608, and 611 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 580 and 505 March.  Support is at 615, 595, and 581 March, and resistance is at 644, 650, and 655 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on the disappointing weekly export sales report and as rains are forecast to return to dry soils in South America starting this weekend.  USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected.  USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market.   The rains so far this week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  Showers are now in the forecast for southern Brazil this week and in parts of Argentina next week. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally and the forecasts took prices lower.  Rains are expected in southern Brazil growing areas and Argentina in the next week or so.

Overnight News: Spain bought 100,000 tons of US Soybran Meal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1367, 1365, and 1355 March, and resistance is at 1401 1416, and 1420 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 402.00, 398.00, and 396.00 March, and resistance is at 420.00 426.00, and 432.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation, but higher for the week on poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was lower again and price trends are starting to turn down.  The forecasts for rain are hurting Canola as well as Soybeans prices.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 967.00 March.  Support is at 979.00, 970.00, and 945.00 March, with resistance at 996.00, 1011.00, and 1021.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5310 and 5510 March.  Support is at 5080, 5030, and 4950 March, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 March.