Grains Report - Friday, Dec. 4

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as no new sales to China were announced and as the weekly export sales report showed just average business. There was talk of big Chinese purchases in both Wheat and Corn but nothing confirmed by USDA. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the Great Plains in recent days, but it fell mostly in eastern areas and not in the west. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been late to help much with establishment but will help with soil moisture into the Spring. Western Australia conditions are good after some rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 565 and 531 March. Support is at 574, 568, and 558 March, with resistance at 592, 600, and 608 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 514 and 474 March. Support is at 536, 533, and 528 March, with resistance at 555, 559, and 569 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 537 March. Support is at 546, 543, and 537 March, and resistance is at 560, 564, and 570 March.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again on speculative selling. Futures are starting to turn trends down after a sharp move higher a few days ago. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. Export demand has held well despite the higher prices. The harvest is over with good field yields reported. Producers are now doing other things and are not really worried about the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1204, 1187, and 1175 January. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1215 January, with resistance at 1246, 1248, and 1256 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying. There were ideas of big Chinese purchases of US Corn around once again yesterday but nothing confirmed by USDA. The weekly export sales report was good. Ideas of reduced production here and in other exporting countries continue. US yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have seen some very beneficial rains in some areas and at least a little rain in most areas this weekend with more expected early this week. The rains are expected to move into central and northern Brazil by the end of the week. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 182,020 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 414, 408, and 397 March. Support is at 420, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 427, 430, and 436 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 298 and 306 March. Support is at 295, 290, and 287 March, and resistance is at 304, 309, and 311 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on-demand ideas but needed rains continue to fall in South America. Production potential has been threatened there due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil right now but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. The rains are expected to move north into central and northern Brazil now while southern areas turn drier again. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was once again a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1127 March. Support is at 1152, 1143, and 1138 January, and resistance is at 1174, 1182, and 1190 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 376.00 and 363.00 March. Support is at 381.00, 379.00, and 376.00 January, and resistance is at 392.00, 384.00, and 401.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3660, and 3640 January, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3900 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of low November production and on news that Indonesia had increased its tax on Palm Oil exports. The tax is now graduated so higher Palm Oil sales prices mean higher taxes paid. New that India had cut its import tariffs on Palm Oil supported the futures market on Friday and forced the higher weekly close. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Chart trends are still up. Canola was higher with Chicago and on the StatsCan report. It showed that production is not keeping up with projected demand and implied that ending stocks this year could be very tight. Demand reports have been strong until now. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option, but fading values in Palm Oil now are a concern. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks. Canola farmers have reduced selling so demand is chasing after fewer supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 598.00 and 612.00 January. Support is at 584.00, 576.00, and 564.00 January, with resistance at 589.00, 592.00, and 595.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3300, 3270, and 3240 February, with resistance at 3360, 3420, and 3440 February.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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