Gold's Stumbles To Complete Q1; The Econ Baro Comes Undone

  • Gold settled year-end 2018 at 1285; 
  • Gold to make the above Scoreboard forecast for 1434 need be +10.6%;
  • Gold on 20 February at 1349 was +5.0%, nearly half the requisite distance; 
  • Gold has now settled Q1 of 2019 at 1297;
  • Gold at present is thus +1.0% year-to-date.

 "What—Me Worry?"

Indeed it was just one week ago that we penned "Gold's Short-Lived Short Trend"But then Gold, while steadying to a bruising right royal Brexit-and-all-else-be-damned kick in the derriere, went on to Friday at the noted 1297 level, a 1.2% loss for the week. But wait, it's worse: for as contract volume rolled from April into June, Gold garnered six fat points of premium. Thus Gold's loss for the week was honestly 1.7%, the fifth worst weekly wallop year-over-year.

"It's that dollar strength."

Au contraire mon frère: the Dollar ain't done squat. It, too, year-to-date is up but 1.3%. Nope. The story thus far for 2019 is to be Long the economically-driven products and avoid the safe haven stuff. And nowhere is that more apparent than in our BEGOS Market standings year-to-date with Black Gold massively leading the pack:

But specifically from the metals perspective, given that Copper is +10.9% and Gold is +1.0%, why is Silver -3.0%? To be sure, the market is never wrong, but talk about a gross misguidance of valuation perception out there. Dare we employ the most over-used adjective in sports broadcasting,"It's unbelievable!" Well  it is. Look at the Gold/Silver ratio in our next graphic of the weekly bars: 85.9x. A year or so ago we were tongue-in-cheek considering the far-flung 80's as becoming the norm: now we're beginning to believe it, (were it not so unbelievable). And for those of you lucky enough to be scoring at home, that ratio's average 2001-to-date is 64.1x.

Meanwhile as we below see, the now five-week stint of parabolic Short trend is to this point actually appearing comparatively benign, albeit the right-most bar engulfs the entirety of the prior two weeks' trading range. That's life in The Whiny 1290's:

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