Gold's June Swoon


Per last week's piece, you know that Gold (GLD) settled the month of May at 1904. We next see it settling this month of June nearer to 1800.

"Well that's a pretty loosey-goosey statement there, mmb..."

Admittedly 'tis, Squire. Akin to "The sun shall rise at month's end somewhere between midnight and noon." But the point is: we see Gold entering a bit of a June swoon, however not sufficiently negative to nix our "2401 in 2021" tune.

Gold has had a great run of late, encompassing a 14.7% rise across just 60 trading days (from 1673 on 08 March to 1919 on 01 June) which is an annualized pace of 61.8% (yes, the "Golden Ratio" rate!!) As well, price has returned to where it started the year 'round the Big Round Number of 1900, which by some analysts and algorithms is cause for pause. And as we'll see deeper down in this missive, Gold's "linear regression uptrend" is just now beginning to run out of puff. Moreover, June historically is at best a fairly namby-pamby month for our yellow metal.

Therefore: loosey-goosey + namby-pamby = the following high-level executive assessment on June Gold:

Millennium-to-date, Gold has endured (for those of you who properly know how to count) 20 full months of June: 11 of those have resulted in negative net changes and 9 of those positively so. Gold's worst June therein was -12.2% in 2013 and the best was +8.7% in 2016. Apply that range from 2021's May settle at 1904 and we'd likely find Gold at the end of this June somewhere between 1672 and 2070. Refining that too-wide zone by assessing Gold's recent pricing structure and the low-to-mid 1800s seem a reasonable area in which to settle June. Too, the Junes of both 2019 and 2020 were positive ... but across the past 46 years, Gold has never recorded three consecutive positive Junes.

'Course, records are made to be broken and we hope we're wrong such that Gold completes June above 2000 ... but as the numbers don't lie, 'tis those we go by.

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