Gold's Beat Goes On In The New Year's Dawn

To that above at which we hinted two missives ago and then outright stated last week, there it is: the new year's Gold Scoreboard maintaining the old year's forecast.

In a nutshell for those of you who've been gallivanting about in mirthful holiday mode, we'd concluded that since Gold hadn't altered any of its overhead pricing structure in not having traded far enough upward as to so do, nothing has thus changed such that the forecast remains rightly the same. Indeed the only advance is that ever-telling number in green which at this date a year ago was $2,777/oz. and which today is $2,871/oz. That is because the M2 supply of made-up Dollars is today $706 billion more than it was then. And yet the price of Gold one year ago was higher (albeit immaterially so) at $1,320/oz. versus its having settled out the week yesterday (Friday) at $1,286/oz. But "The beat goes on..."--(Sonny & Cher, '67).

Yes the beat goes on in Gold's weekly bars for its rising blue dots of parabolic Long trend. Of the 38 such Long trends millennium-to-date, this current one now of 17 weeks ties for seventh in duration, but pales in comparison by price sweep: its seventh-place cohort (for the 17 weeks ending May 13, 2016) encompassed a low-to-high run of +20.7% (from 1082 to 1306); this run is not even half that at +9.8% (from 1184 to 1300). But up is up and as we on occasion say "we'll take what we can get".

And yet from the "Change is an Illusion whereas Price is the Truth Dept." Gold today is right where it was those two-and-a-half years ago. Traders' delight, investors' plight. Still it is nice to see price above The Box (1240-1280); however that left-most thicket of bars in this weekly chart shall require diamond-tipped drill bits through which to get. Of course, the ongoing correction in the "lurch-about S&P 500" ultimately down to 2154 ought continue playing into Gold's favor ... and a re-taking of Base Camp 1377 we'd certainly savor. The technical wet blanket on it all? The diagonal dashed trendline is still in descent and price is stretched quite far above it. So "c'mon common sense fundamentals!" help save the day:

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