Gold Triple Top Suggests Upside Pop

 

We begin by quoting the late Hervé Villechaize as Nick Nack in the film 'The Man with the Golden Gun' --[United Artists, '74]: "So near... and yet so far..."

Such was Gold's quest this past week in attempting to regain our anticipated near-term price of 1800: Wednesday's high was 1798.4; Thursday's high was 1798.1; and Friday's high was 1796.3. Admittedly, those are (barely) consecutive lower highs. "Growl!" goes the bear. But to look at the three tops graphically...

...that has "Triple Top 'n Pop" written all over it. And you already know from your dog-eared paperback copy of 'Traders’ Truthful Tenets': "Triple Tops are meant to be broken!" Thus we look to 1800+ in the new week and in turn the opportunity for Gold's weekly parabolic trend to flip from Short to Long at 1820. "Roar!" goes the bull.

Animal audibles aside, Gold (GLD) settled yesterday at 1777, (a whopping one point net loss for the week). Moreover, 'twas Gold's third consecutive week of recording both higher lows and higher highs. To which the contrarian may say: "Well, it has to go down then." To which the trend follower may say: "There have been six, seven, and even eight consecutive weeks of both higher lows and higher highs on multiple occasions across the past 20 years." But bless the dear Shorts, for we need them to take the other side of the trade. And right now for Gold, 1800 is all but made.

Further as just mentioned, should 1820 trade in the new week, Gold's parabolic trend per the following chart of weekly bars shall flip from Short to Long. At present, Gold's expected daily trading range is 24 points, and its expected weekly trading range is 58 points. Thus in that vacuum, 1800 is within a day's range, and 1820 is within a week's range, (barring the Shorts spoiling the party):

In fact, should you be planning for the flip to Long, there've been since the year 2002 a total of 42 weekly parabolic Long trends. The "median maximum" price increase for Gold across those 42 occurrences is +9.1%. So in that vein, should Gold's weekly parabolic trend flip to Long in the new week at 1820, a median repeat performance of +9.1% would eventually put price up to 1986. Yes, that pales in comparison to our call this year for 2401: but 'twould be a lovely upside lurch en route. (And for those of you fortunate to be scoring at home, the median duration of those 42 Long trends is 11 weeks: 'tis thus conceivable by those yardsticks that we'll again see Gold 2000 by July: don't forget to tell your friends).

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